Kudrivka
vs
Chornomorets
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Kudrivka 2–1 Chornomorets
The model makes it 42% Kudrivka, 27% draw, 31% Chornomorets — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kudrivka 1.55, Chornomorets 1.23.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Kudrivka's rating is built from 42 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Chornomorets's from 8, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Kudrivka are 15th on 5 points from 10 games; Chornomorets are 14th on 5 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Kudrivka have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Dynamo Kyiv.
- Chornomorets have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Zorya Luhansk.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kudrivka vs Chornomorets
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kudrivka at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kudrivka vs Chornomorets
Kudrivka
Premier League
- L1-3away to Dynamo Kyiv23 October 2026
- W4-1Bukovyna17 October 2026
- L1-2away to LNZ Cherkasy11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Veres Rivne3 October 2026
- L2-3Kolos Kovalivka20 September 2026
Chornomorets
Premier League
- L1-2away to Zorya Luhansk17 October 2026
- L1-2FC Kharkiv10 October 2026
- D1-1Obolon'-Brovar18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk14 September 2026
- D0-0Livyi Bereh4 September 2026
What these results say
- Kudrivka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kudrivka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Kudrivka had three goals or more.
- Chornomorets did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chornomorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Kudrivka and Chornomorets
Kudrivka
GoalsAssists
- R. Owusu21
- D. Svityukha20
Chornomorets
GoalsAssists
- K. Popov20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kudrivka carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.24 for Chornomorets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Kudrivka and 1.23 for Chornomorets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kudrivka rate 0.59 in attack and 2.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chornomorets rate 0.47 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chornomorets, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kudrivka the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Kudrivka against 1.23 for Chornomorets. Kudrivka's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.62 for Chornomorets.
How the model reaches 42% for Kudrivka to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kudrivka to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Kudrivka's ratings take away 30 points and Chornomorets's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Kudrivka's ratings14%−30
- Chornomorets's ratings42%+28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kudrivka at home · Chornomorets away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Kudrivka 10, Chornomorets 8.
Kudrivka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Chornomorets have let in 3 there.
Chornomorets score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Kudrivka have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kudrivka
- at Kryvbas KR21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs FC Kharkiv28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at Zorya Luhansk5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 4%
Chornomorets
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Dynamo Kyiv28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.