Unia Skierniewice
vs
Polonia Bytom
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Unia Skierniewice 2–1 Polonia Bytom
The model makes it 40% Unia Skierniewice, 26% draw, 34% Polonia Bytom — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Unia Skierniewice 1.61, Polonia Bytom 1.44.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Unia Skierniewice are 17th on 11 points from 10 games; Polonia Bytom are 13th on 12 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Unia Skierniewice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Nieciecza.
- Polonia Bytom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Puszcza Niepołomice.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Unia Skierniewice at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
- D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Podbeskidzie20 September 2026
- W3-2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ruch Chorzów7 September 2026
- L0-1Stal Rzeszów28 August 2026
Polonia Bytom
- W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 October 2026
- D0-0Ruch Chorzów18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Polonia Warszawa11 September 2026
- D0-0Podbeskidzie6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arka Gdynia30 August 2026
What these results say
- Unia Skierniewice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Bytom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polonia Bytom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Polonia Bytom had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Unia Skierniewice
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 49% today
Polonia Bytom
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Unia Skierniewice carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.25 for Polonia Bytom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Unia Skierniewice and 1.44 for Polonia Bytom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Unia Skierniewice rate 0.50 in attack and 2.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Polonia Bytom rate 0.59 and 1.98.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Polonia Bytom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Unia Skierniewice a 0% chance of the title and Polonia Bytom 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Unia Skierniewice the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Unia Skierniewice against 1.44 for Polonia Bytom. Unia Skierniewice's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.98 for Polonia Bytom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Unia Skierniewice at home · Polonia Bytom away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Unia Skierniewice 10, Polonia Bytom 10.
Unia Skierniewice score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Polonia Bytom have let in 2 there.
Polonia Bytom score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Unia Skierniewice have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Unia Skierniewice
- at Lechia Gdansk31 Oct · I Ligawin 14%
- at Odra Opole6 Nov · I Ligawin 25%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce21 Nov · I Ligawin 40%
- at Chrobry Głogów28 Nov · I Ligawin 24%
Polonia Bytom
- vs Odra Opole2 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
- vs Lechia Gdansk8 Nov · I Ligawin 31%
- at Stal Rzeszów21 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
- at Miedz Legnica28 Nov · I Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.