Stal Mielec
vs
Chrobry Głogów
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Stal Mielec 2–1 Chrobry Głogów
The model makes it 40% Stal Mielec, 26% draw, 34% Chrobry Głogów — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stal Mielec 1.61, Chrobry Głogów 1.43.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stal Mielec are 14th on 12 points from 10 games; Chrobry Głogów are 12th on 12 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Stal Mielec have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Warta Poznań.
- Chrobry Głogów are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
- Last 6 meetings: Chrobry Głogów 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 April 2026, ended Chrobry Głogów 2–1 Stal Mielec.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stal Mielec at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów
Stal Mielec
- W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026
- L1-7away to Lechia Gdansk19 September 2026
- L1-2Nieciecza14 September 2026
- D1-1Odra Opole5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogoń Siedlce29 August 2026
Chrobry Głogów
- L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Polonia Warszawa19 September 2026
- D0-0Pogoń Siedlce12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Miedz Legnica5 September 2026
- W2-0Ruch Chorzów30 August 2026
What these results say
- Stal Mielec conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chrobry Głogów failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chrobry Głogów had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stal Mielec
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Chrobry Głogów
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów
- 17 April 2026Chrobry Głogów 2–1 Stal MielecI Liga
- 3 October 2025Stal Mielec 1–2 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
- 14 July 2020Stal Mielec 1–0 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
- 27 October 2019Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Stal MielecI Liga
- 28 April 2019Stal Mielec 5–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
- 13 October 2018Chrobry Głogów 0–0 Stal MielecI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stal Mielec carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.27 for Chrobry Głogów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Stal Mielec and 1.43 for Chrobry Głogów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stal Mielec rate 0.62 in attack and 2.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chrobry Głogów rate 0.49 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chrobry Głogów, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stal Mielec a 0.3% chance of the title and Chrobry Głogów 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stal Mielec the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Stal Mielec against 1.43 for Chrobry Głogów. Stal Mielec's attack/defence rating is 0.62/2.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.6 for Chrobry Głogów.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stal Mielec at home · Chrobry Głogów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Stal Mielec 10, Chrobry Głogów 10.
Stal Mielec score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Chrobry Głogów have let in 3 there.
Chrobry Głogów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Stal Mielec have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stal Mielec
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki30 Oct · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Ruch Chorzów8 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
- at Polonia Warszawa21 Nov · I Ligawin 22%
- at Puszcza Niepołomice28 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
Chrobry Głogów
- vs Arka Gdynia3 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
- at Nieciecza7 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice21 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- vs Unia Skierniewice28 Nov · I Ligawin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.