Antwerp
vs
Lommel United
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Antwerp 0–1 Lommel United
The model makes it 30% Antwerp, 28% draw, 42% Lommel United — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Antwerp 1.16, Lommel United 1.46.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Lommel United: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Antwerp's rating is built from 48 Jupiler Pro League matches and Lommel United's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- Antwerp are 13th on 7 points from 8 games; Lommel United are 10th on 11 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Antwerp have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to KVC Westerlo.
- Lommel United have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to SK Beveren.
- Last 4 meetings: Antwerp 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 February 2017, ended Antwerp 1–0 Lommel United.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Antwerp vs Lommel United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lommel United at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Antwerp vs Lommel United
Antwerp
Jupiler Pro League
- L1-5away to KVC Westerlo11 October 2026
- L0-2Union St. Gilloise20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Club Brugge KV13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Standard Liege5 September 2026
- L1-4St. Truiden30 August 2026
Lommel United
Jupiler Pro League
- W3-1away to SK Beveren9 October 2026
- D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Union St. Gilloise12 September 2026
- L0-1Club Brugge KV4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cercle Brugge29 August 2026
What these results say
- Antwerp did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Antwerp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Antwerp vs Lommel United
- 26 February 2017Antwerp 1–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 16 December 2016Lommel United 2–4 AntwerpChallenger Pro League
- 23 October 2016Lommel United 1–1 AntwerpChallenger Pro League
- 19 August 2016Antwerp 0–1 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
Leading scorers: Antwerp and Lommel United
Antwerp
GoalsAssists
- M. Frey40
Lommel United
GoalsAssists
- T. Reyners30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Antwerp carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.84 for Lommel United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Antwerp and 1.46 for Lommel United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Antwerp rate 0.80 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lommel United rate 0.87 and 0.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Antwerp a 0% chance of the title and Lommel United 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lommel United the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Antwerp against 1.46 for Lommel United. Antwerp's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.9 for Lommel United.
How the model reaches 42% for Lommel United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Lommel United to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Antwerp's ratings add 14 points and Lommel United's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Antwerp's ratings44%+14
- Lommel United's ratings42%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Antwerp at home · Lommel United away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AntwerpLommel United
Antwerp are 13th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 13th so far); Lommel United are 10th after 8 (between 4th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Antwerp 8, Lommel United 8.
Antwerp score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Lommel United have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Antwerp
- at Zulte Waregem21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Anderlecht29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
- at RAAL La Louvière12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 35%
Lommel United
- vs Standard Liege22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
- vs Zulte Waregem28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 45%
- at Kortrijk12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.