1 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Germany vs Serbia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Allianz Arena, Munich
Referee: Espen Eskas
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Germany 2-0 Serbia.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Germany, 24% draw, 17% Serbia — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Germany at 59%: of 1,421 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.7% came in (average 55.5%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Germany99%Draw1%Serbia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Tom Bischof
39'
🔁Serge Gnabryout: Said El Mala
45'
⚽Florian Wirtzassist: Maximilian Mittelstädt
61'
66'
🔁Andrija Živkovićout: Lazar Samardzic
67'
🔁Strahinja Erakovicout: Strahinja Pavlovic
67'
🔁Stefan Džodićout: Mihajlo Cvetkovic
67'
🔁Dušan Tadićout: Saša Lukić
73'
Nemanja Gudelj
🔁Nick Woltemadeout: Jonathan Burkardt
77'
🔁Derry Lionel Scherhantout: Bambasé Conté
77'
🔁Tom Bischofout: Mika Baur
77'
79'
Nemanja Maksimović
79'
Veljko Paunovic
🔁Aleksandar Pavlovićout: Vitaly Janelt
88'
88'
🔁Nemanja Maksimovićout: Vasilije Kostov

Match stats — Germany vs Serbia

74%Possession26%
32Shots1
8On target1
12Corners1

Line-ups

Germany 4-4-2
  • 1J. UrbigG
  • 13P. TreuD
  • 3W. AntonD
  • 2M. ThiawD
  • 18M. MittelstädtD
  • 20S. GnabryM
  • 5A. PavlovićM
  • 8T. BischofM
  • 9D. ScherhantM
  • 11N. WoltemadeF
  • 17F. WirtzF
Substitutes
  • 16R. BakuD
  • 22D. RaumD
  • 15L. KarlM
  • 4Finn JeltschD
  • 23V. JaneltM
  • 6Y. EngelhardtM
  • 7S. El MalaM
  • 21N. AtuboluG
  • 14M. BaurM
Coach: J. Klopp
Serbia 5-4-1
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 2K. NedeljkovićD
  • 16S. ErakovićD
  • 6N. GudeljD
  • 15S. BabićD
  • 11F. KostićD
  • 14A. ŽivkovićM
  • 5N. MaksimovićM
  • 19S. DžodićM
  • 10D. TadićM
  • 8L. JovićF
Substitutes
  • 17A. TerzićD
  • 18M. CvetkovićF
  • 9D. JoveljićF
  • 12F. StankovićG
  • 7A. StankovićM
  • 13N. SimićD
  • 21L. SamardžićM
  • 3S. PavlovićD
  • 4O. MimovićD
Coach: V. Paunovic

Form going into Germany vs Serbia

Germany

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-1Greece27 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Netherlands24 September 2026

Serbia

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2Netherlands27 September 2026
  • L1-2Greece24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Germany412132+15
4Serbia400438-50

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Germany vs Serbia

  • 20 March 2019Germany 1–1 SerbiaFriendlies
  • 18 June 2010Germany 0–1 SerbiaWorld Cup

The result against the call

Germany beat Serbia 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Germany at 59%. The goals: Tom Bischof 39' for Germany, Florian Wirtz 61' for Germany.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.