1 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Malta vs Gibraltar UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Ta'Qali National Stadium, Takali
Referee: Antoni Bandic
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Malta 1-1 Gibraltar.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Malta, 29% draw, 36% Gibraltar — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gibraltar at 36%: of 4,265 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.6% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Malta4%Draw92%Gibraltar4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Graeme Torrilla
⚽Joseph Mbongassist: Ylyas Chouaref
53'
61'
⚽James Scanlon
Ylyas Chouaref
63'
Joseph Mbong
72'
🔁Joseph Mbongout: Paul Mbong
73'
🔁Alexander·Satarianoout: Paiber Brandon Diego
73'
🔁Teddy Teumaout: Keyon Ewurum
82'
86'
🔁Nicholas Pozoout: Han Stevens
🔁Juan Corbalanout: Andrea Zammit
88'
🔁Kurt Shawout: Zach Muscat
88'
Zach Muscat
90+1'

Match stats — Malta vs Gibraltar

62%Possession38%
17Shots9
5On target2
8Corners1

Line-ups

Malta 4-2-3-1
  • 1H. BonelloG
  • 21J. CorbalanD
  • 5K. ShawD
  • 13E. PepeD
  • 3R. CamenzuliD
  • 6M. GuillaumierM
  • 23A. SatarianoM
  • 7J. MbongM
  • 10T. TeumaM
  • 20I. ChouarefM
  • 11I. CardonaF
Substitutes
  • 15M. BeermanD
  • 16R. Al TumiG
  • 2J. BorgD
  • 19K. EwurumF
  • 9J. GrechF
  • 8P. MbongF
  • 22Z. MuscatD
  • 18B. PaiberM
  • 14A. ZammitF
Coach: E. De Leo
Gibraltar 4-3-3
  • 23J. HankinsG
  • 2E. JolleyD
  • 5D. BentD
  • 6B. LopesD
  • 3J. ValarinoD
  • 8K. RonanM
  • 22G. TorrillaM
  • 11J. ScanlonM
  • 7Carlos Peliza RichardsF
  • 10T. De BarrF
  • 4N. PozoF
Substitutes
  • 16H. StevensM
  • 21A. PonsD
  • 20E. BrittoD
  • 9D. BorgeF
  • 1B. BandaG
  • 18J. BartoloF
  • 14J. GarroD
  • 12J. GomezM
  • 13Victor Huart GuerraG
Coach: S. Wiseman

Form going into Malta vs Gibraltar

Malta

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1away to Andorra24 September 2026

Gibraltar

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Andorra27 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Malta321042+27
2Gibraltar20201102

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Malta vs Gibraltar

  • 6 September 2023Malta 1–0 GibraltarFriendlies
  • 7 October 2020Malta 2–0 GibraltarFriendlies

The result against the call

Malta and Gibraltar drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gibraltar at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Joseph Mbong 53' for Malta, James Scanlon 61' for Gibraltar.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.