1 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Greece vs Netherlands UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Referee: Marco Guida
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Greece 2-2 Netherlands.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Greece, 29% draw, 40% Netherlands — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Netherlands at 40%: of 2,595 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.7% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Greece3%Draw93%Netherlands4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Christos Tzolisout: Georgios Masouras
18'
⚽Fotis Ioannidisassist: Georgios Masouras
23'
⚽Georgios Masourasassist: Fotis Ioannidis
45+2'
45'
🔁Ruben van Bommelout: Noa Lang
45'
🔁Guus Tilout: Tijjani Reijnders
45'
🔁Quinten Timberout: Ryan Gravenberch
59'
⚽Virgil van Dijkassist: Joey Veerman
66'
•Denzel Dumfries
Konstantinos Tzolakis
67'
70'
🔁Mexx Meerdinkout: Joshua Zirkzee
🔁Fotis Ioannidisout: Andrews Tetteh
71'
🔁Vangelis Pavlidisout: Christos Zafeiris
71'
Manolis Saliakas
76'
76'
Noa Lang
78'
🔁Jurriën Timberout: Gjivai Zechiel
🔁Athanasios Androutsosout: Anastasios Douvikas
83'
🔁Konstantinos Karetsasout: Giannis Michailidis
83'
89'
⚽Tijjani Reijnders

Match stats — Greece vs Netherlands

29%Possession71%
8Shots19
4On target5
6Corners8

Line-ups

Greece 4-4-2
  • 12K. TzolakisG
  • 17M. SaliakasD
  • 4K. MavropanosD
  • 5P. RetsosD
  • 21K. TsimikasD
  • 19K. KaretsasM
  • 6D. KourbelisM
  • 15T. AndroutsosM
  • 10C. TzolisM
  • 14V. PavlidisF
  • 8F. IoannidisF
Substitutes
  • 11C. KostoulasF
  • 9T. DouvikasF
  • 3K. KoulierakisD
  • 22G. KiriakopoulosD
  • 13C. MandasG
  • 7G. MasourasF
  • 18G. MichailidisD
  • 23C. MouzakitisM
  • 16A. TettehF
Coach: I. Jovanović
Netherlands 4-3-3
  • 1B. VerbruggenG
  • 22D. DumfriesD
  • 12J. TimberD
  • 4V. van DijkD
  • 15M. van de VenD
  • 18J. VeermanM
  • 16G. TilM
  • 6Q. TimberM
  • 7C. SummervilleF
  • 17M. MeerdinkF
  • 11R. van BommelF
Substitutes
  • 9J. ZirkzeeF
  • 21G. ZechiëlM
  • 19K. TaylorM
  • 13R. RoefsG
  • 14T. ReijndersM
  • 10N. LangF
  • 20T. KoopmeinersM
  • 3J. HatoD
  • 8R. GravenberchM
Coach: Xavi

Form going into Greece vs Netherlands

Greece

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0away to Germany27 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Serbia24 September 2026

Netherlands

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1away to Serbia27 September 2026
  • D1-1Germany24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Greece422053+28
1Netherlands422075+28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Greece vs Netherlands

  • 16 October 2023Greece 0–1 NetherlandsEuro Championship - Qualification
  • 7 September 2023Netherlands 3–0 GreeceEuro Championship - Qualification

The result against the call

Greece and Netherlands drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Netherlands at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Fotis Ioannidis 23' for Greece, Georgios Masouras 45+2' for Greece, Virgil van Dijk 59' for Netherlands, Tijjani Reijnders 89' for Netherlands.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.