Jong PSV U21
vs
NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Jong PSV U21 0–1 NAC Breda
The model makes it 30% Jong PSV U21, 29% draw, 41% NAC Breda — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Jong PSV U21 1.14, NAC Breda 1.40.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Edge to NAC Breda: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Jong PSV U21's rating is built from 48 Eerste Divisie matches and NAC Breda's from 34 Eredivisie matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Jong PSV U21 are 13th on 13 points from 10 games; NAC Breda are 5th on 20 points from 11 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Jong PSV U21 are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Roda.
- NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Helmond Sport.
- Last 6 meetings: NAC Breda 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 April 2024, ended NAC Breda 2–0 Jong PSV U21.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NAC Breda at 41% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda
Jong PSV U21
- D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Vitesse19 September 2026
- D1-1Jong AZ14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Helmond Sport11 September 2026
- W3-1Den Bosch7 September 2026
NAC Breda
- W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026
- W1-0MVV9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Vitesse3 October 2026
- W4-2FC Eindhoven26 September 2026
- W2-1away to De Graafschap20 September 2026
What these results say
- Jong PSV U21 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Jong PSV U21.
- NAC Breda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- NAC Breda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- NAC Breda won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jong PSV U21 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 5 | NAC Breda | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda
- 28 April 2024NAC Breda 2–0 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 4 December 2023Jong PSV U21 0–5 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 6 March 2023Jong PSV U21 1–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 6 January 2023NAC Breda 2–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 25 February 2022NAC Breda 3–1 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 22 November 2021Jong PSV U21 0–0 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda
Jong PSV U21
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
NAC Breda
GoalsAssists
- C. Brym60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Jong PSV U21 carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.51 for NAC Breda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.40 for NAC Breda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jong PSV U21 rate 0.54 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NAC Breda rate 0.66 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong PSV U21 a 0.3% chance of the title and NAC Breda 17.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NAC Breda the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 against 1.40 for NAC Breda. Jong PSV U21's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.3 for NAC Breda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jong PSV U21 at home · NAC Breda away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong PSV U21 10, NAC Breda 11.
Jong PSV U21 score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); NAC Breda have let in 5 there.
NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Jong PSV U21 have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Jong PSV U21
- at VVV Venlo6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
- at Heracles20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Jong Utrecht23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
NAC Breda
- at Dordrecht6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 50%
- vs Emmen14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
- at Almere City FC20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs Den Bosch27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.