Jong Utrecht
vs
Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Jong Utrecht 2–1 Dordrecht
The model makes it 52% Jong Utrecht, 25% draw, 23% Dordrecht — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.88, Dordrecht 1.08.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
Edge to Jong Utrecht: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Jong Utrecht's rating is built from 48 Eerste Divisie matches and Dordrecht's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Jong Utrecht are bottom on 7 points from 10 games; Dordrecht are 19th on 8 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Jong Utrecht have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to De Graafschap.
- Dordrecht have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Emmen.
- Last 6 meetings: Jong Utrecht 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 March 2026, ended Jong Utrecht 3–1 Dordrecht.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jong Utrecht at 52% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht
Jong Utrecht
- L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026
- L1-3VVV Venlo18 September 2026
- W6-1Jong Ajax14 September 2026
- W3-2away to NAC Breda11 September 2026
- D0-0FC Eindhoven7 September 2026
Dordrecht
- L0-3Emmen9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Den Bosch3 October 2026
- W3-2Almere City FC25 September 2026
- L0-3away to FC OSS18 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Eindhoven11 September 2026
What these results say
- Jong Utrecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong Utrecht conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht had three goals or more.
- Dordrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dordrecht failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dordrecht had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht
- 20 March 2026Jong Utrecht 3–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 28 November 2025Dordrecht 1–2 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 2 May 2025Jong Utrecht 1–0 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 25 October 2024Dordrecht 3–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 10 May 2024Jong Utrecht 1–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 15 September 2023Dordrecht 3–3 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht
Jong Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- E. C. Owen50
Dordrecht
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jong Utrecht carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.09 for Dordrecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.08 for Dordrecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jong Utrecht rate 0.54 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dordrecht rate 0.47 and 2.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dordrecht, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong Utrecht a 0.1% chance of the title and Dordrecht 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jong Utrecht the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Jong Utrecht against 1.08 for Dordrecht. Jong Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.14 for Dordrecht.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jong Utrecht at home · Dordrecht away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Utrecht 10, Dordrecht 10.
Dordrecht score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Jong Utrecht have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Jong Utrecht
- at Den Bosch7 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
- vs Emmen20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- at Jong PSV U2123 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
Dordrecht
- vs NAC Breda6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs Heracles14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- at Helmond Sport20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.