Vissel Kobe
vs
Ratchaburi
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Vissel Kobe 2–1 Ratchaburi
The model makes it 70% Vissel Kobe, 17% draw, 13% Ratchaburi — fair odds of 1.43, 5.88 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Vissel Kobe 2.96, Ratchaburi 1.02.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,403 settled matches.
One-sided: Vissel Kobe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Vissel Kobe's rating is built from 58 matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; Ratchaburi's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Vissel Kobe are 3rd on 6 points from 2 games; Ratchaburi are 12th on 0 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Vissel Kobe have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Kashima.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vissel Kobe vs Ratchaburi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vissel Kobe at 70% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 343 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Vissel Kobe vs Ratchaburi
Vissel Kobe
- W2-0Jeonbuk Motors14 October 2026
- W2-1away to Port FC16 September 2026
Ratchaburi
- L0-1away to Kyoto Sanga13 October 2026
- L4-6SHANGHAI SIPG15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 12 | Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Vissel Kobe and Ratchaburi
Vissel Kobe
GoalsAssists
- Y. Osako11
- Y. Muto11
Ratchaburi
GoalsAssists
- Martin Njiva Rakotoharimalala31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vissel Kobe carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.28 for Ratchaburi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.96 goals for Vissel Kobe and 1.02 for Ratchaburi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vissel Kobe rate 0.78 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ratchaburi rate 0.66 and 2.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vissel Kobe the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Vissel Kobe against 1.02 for Ratchaburi. Vissel Kobe's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.12 for Ratchaburi.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vissel Kobe
- at Công An Nhân Dân24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 43%
- vs Newcastle Jets1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 61%
- vs Pohang Steelers10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 60%
- at Buriram United16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 41%
Ratchaburi
- vs Johor Darul Takzim FC24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 36%
- at Beijing Guoan1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 17%
- vs Gamba Osaka9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- at Kashima16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 10%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.