Công An Nhân Dân
vs
Kyoto Sanga
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Công An Nhân Dân 2–1 Kyoto Sanga
The model makes it 40% Công An Nhân Dân, 26% draw, 34% Kyoto Sanga — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Công An Nhân Dân 1.64, Kyoto Sanga 1.48.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Công An Nhân Dân's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Kyoto Sanga's from 58 matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Công An Nhân Dân are 13th on 0 points from 2 games; Kyoto Sanga are 9th on 3 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kyoto Sanga have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Kashiwa Reysol.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Công An Nhân Dân vs Kyoto Sanga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Công An Nhân Dân at 40% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Công An Nhân Dân vs Kyoto Sanga
Công An Nhân Dân
- L0-1Kashima13 October 2026
- L1-4away to Gamba Osaka15 September 2026
Kyoto Sanga
- W1-0Ratchaburi13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Daejeon Citizen15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Công An Nhân Dân | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Công An Nhân Dân carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.44 for Kyoto Sanga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Công An Nhân Dân and 1.48 for Kyoto Sanga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Công An Nhân Dân rate 0.60 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kyoto Sanga rate 0.68 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Công An Nhân Dân the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Công An Nhân Dân against 1.48 for Kyoto Sanga. Công An Nhân Dân's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.53 for Kyoto Sanga.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Công An Nhân Dân
- vs Vissel Kobe24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 31%
- at Kashiwa Reysol1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 16%
- vs Beijing Guoan9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 37%
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
Kyoto Sanga
- vs Pohang Steelers24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 51%
- at Buriram United1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- vs Jeonbuk Motors9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 39%
- at Port FC16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.