Atletico Madrid
vs
Bayern München
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Atletico Madrid 1–2 Bayern München
The model makes it 37% Atletico Madrid, 24% draw, 39% Bayern München — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.77, Bayern München 1.82.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 916 settled matches.
A tight game: Atletico Madrid and Bayern München are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Atletico Madrid's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Bayern München's from 40 Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 686 matches.
Key facts
- Atletico Madrid are 15th on 3 points from 2 games; Bayern München are 10th on 4 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Espanyol.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 6-1 win at home to RB Leipzig.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayern München 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 December 2020, ended Atletico Madrid 1–1 Bayern Munich.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 39% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
Atletico Madrid
- W2-0Manchester United13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026
Bayern München
- D3-3away to Viking13 October 2026
- W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
- 1 December 2020Atletico Madrid 1–1 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- 21 October 2020Bayern Munich 4–0 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 6 December 2016Bayern Munich 1–0 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 28 September 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- 3 May 2016Bayern Munich 2–1 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
- 27 April 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Bayern München
Atletico Madrid
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane31
- M. Olise21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Madrid carry a model rating of 7.15 against 7.34 for Bayern München. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.82 for Bayern München. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Madrid rate 1.36 in attack and 0.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bayern München rate 1.76 and 0.67.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Atletico Madrid against 1.82 for Bayern München. Atletico Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.36/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.76/0.67 for Bayern München.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Madrid at home · Bayern München away
League matches only, this season — Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Atletico Madrid 9 in the La Liga, Bayern München 6 in the Bundesliga.
Atletico Madrid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Bayern München have let in 0 there.
Bayern München score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Atletico Madrid have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Madrid
- vs Barcelona8 Nov · La Ligawin 36%
- at Getafe22 Nov · La Ligawin 48%
Bayern München
- at FSV Mainz 057 Nov · Bundesligawin 63%
- vs 1. FC Köln20 Nov · Bundesligawin 81%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.