Jeonbuk Motors
vs
Johor Darul Takzim FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Jeonbuk Motors 2–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC
The model makes it 53% Jeonbuk Motors, 23% draw, 24% Johor Darul Takzim FC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Jeonbuk Motors 2.27, Johor Darul Takzim FC 1.36.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,403 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Jeonbuk Motors's rating is built from 70 K League 1 matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; Johor Darul Takzim FC's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Jeonbuk Motors are 10th on 3 points from 2 games; Johor Darul Takzim FC are 6th on 4 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Jeonbuk Motors have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Jeju United FC.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jeonbuk Motors vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jeonbuk Motors at 53% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 1,060 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jeonbuk Motors vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
Jeonbuk Motors
- L0-2away to Vissel Kobe14 October 2026
- W2-1Kashiwa Reysol16 September 2026
Johor Darul Takzim FC
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers13 October 2026
- D1-1Buriram United15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jeonbuk Motors | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Jeonbuk Motors and Johor Darul Takzim FC
Jeonbuk Motors
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Johor Darul Takzim FC
GoalsAssists
- Marcos Guilherme21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jeonbuk Motors carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.53 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.36 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.72 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Johor Darul Takzim FC rate 0.88 and 1.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jeonbuk Motors the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.36 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. Jeonbuk Motors's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.76 for Johor Darul Takzim FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Jeonbuk Motors
- at Kashima25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
- vs Gamba Osaka2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 48%
- at Kyoto Sanga9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
Johor Darul Takzim FC
- at Ratchaburi24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
- vs Daejeon Citizen1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 46%
- at Newcastle Jets9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 33%
- vs Công An Nhân Dân16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.