Port FC
vs
Beijing Guoan
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Port FC 1–2 Beijing Guoan
The model makes it 29% Port FC, 26% draw, 45% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Port FC 1.33, Beijing Guoan 1.75.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
One-sided: Beijing Guoan are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Port FC's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Beijing Guoan's from 58 Chinese Super League matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Port FC are 15th on 0 points from 2 games; Beijing Guoan are 4th on 6 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Qingdao Youth Island.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Port FC vs Beijing Guoan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beijing Guoan at 45% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Port FC vs Beijing Guoan
Port FC
- L1-5away to Kashiwa Reysol14 October 2026
- L1-2Vissel Kobe16 September 2026
Beijing Guoan
- W1-0away to Buriram United13 October 2026
- W3-1Pohang Steelers15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Port FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Port FC and Beijing Guoan
Port FC
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Beijing Guoan
GoalsAssists
- Zhang Xizhe11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Port FC carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.48 for Beijing Guoan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Port FC and 1.75 for Beijing Guoan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Port FC rate 0.53 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beijing Guoan rate 0.67 and 1.40.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Port FC against 1.75 for Beijing Guoan. Port FC's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.4 for Beijing Guoan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Port FC
- at Gamba Osaka25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- vs Kashima2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 19%
- at SHANGHAI SIPG9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 16%
- vs Kyoto Sanga16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
Beijing Guoan
- vs Chongqing Tongliang Long8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 59%
- at Daejeon Citizen24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 22%
- vs Ratchaburi1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.