Al-Nassr
vs
Al-Wasl FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Al-Nassr 2–0 Al-Wasl FC
The model makes it 68% Al-Nassr, 19% draw, 13% Al-Wasl FC — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Al-Nassr 2.70, Al-Wasl FC 0.96.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Al-Nassr are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al-Nassr are 8th on 3 points from 2 games; Al-Wasl FC are 14th on 0 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Al-Nassr are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Al Diriyah.
- Al-Wasl FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Al Ain.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Nassr vs Al-Wasl FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Nassr at 68% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al-Nassr vs Al-Wasl FC
Al-Nassr
- W3-1Neftchi Fergana12 October 2026
- L0-4away to Al Ain15 September 2026
Al-Wasl FC
- L1-3Al-Ahli Jeddah12 October 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Nassr and Al-Wasl FC
Al-Nassr
GoalsAssists
- Ângelo10
Al-Wasl FC
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Malheiro11
- Leandro Spadacio10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Nassr carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.6 for Al-Wasl FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.70 goals for Al-Nassr and 0.96 for Al-Wasl FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Nassr rate 1.16 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Wasl FC rate 0.80 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Nassr the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Al-Nassr against 0.96 for Al-Wasl FC. Al-Nassr's attack/defence rating is 1.16/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.31 for Al-Wasl FC.
Season stats
Al-Nassr at home · Al-Wasl FC away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Nassr 8, Al-Wasl FC 5.
Al-Nassr score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Al-Wasl FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Nassr
- vs Al Kholood29 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 72%
- at Pakhtakor2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 64%
Al-Wasl FC
- vs Al-Dhafra30 Oct · Pro Leaguewin 68%
- vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 77%
- at Al-Jazira8 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Hatta SC19 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.