Esteghlal FC
vs
Al Shamal
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Esteghlal FC 2–0 Al Shamal
The model makes it 63% Esteghlal FC, 23% draw, 14% Al Shamal — fair odds of 1.59, 4.35 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Esteghlal FC 2.05, Al Shamal 0.72.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,403 settled matches.
One-sided: Esteghlal FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Esteghlal FC's rating is built from 30 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Al Shamal's from 28 Qatar Stars League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Esteghlal FC are 2nd on 6 points from 2 games; Al Shamal are 10th on 2 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, West Region.
- Esteghlal FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Gol Gohar.
- Al Shamal are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Lusail City.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esteghlal FC at 63% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 1,060 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Esteghlal FC vs Al Shamal
Esteghlal FC
- W2-1away to Al-Gharafa12 October 2026
- W3-0Al Sadd14 September 2026
Al Shamal
- D0-0away to Tractor Sazi12 October 2026
- D1-1Al-Ittihad14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Esteghlal FC and Al Shamal
Esteghlal FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Asani21
Al Shamal
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Esteghlal FC carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.35 for Al Shamal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for Esteghlal FC and 0.72 for Al Shamal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esteghlal FC rate 0.73 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Shamal rate 0.58 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esteghlal FC the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Esteghlal FC against 0.72 for Al Shamal. Esteghlal FC's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.57 for Al Shamal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esteghlal FC at home · Al Shamal away
League matches only, this season — Esteghlal FC in the Persian Gulf Pro League, Al Shamal in the Stars League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Esteghlal FC 9 in the Persian Gulf Pro League, Al Shamal 6 in the Stars League.
Esteghlal FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Al Shamal have let in 2 there.
Al Shamal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Esteghlal FC have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Esteghlal FC
- at Esteghlal Khuzestan7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 54%
- at Al Ain23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 26%
Al Shamal
- at Al Sadd6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 25%
- vs Al-Sailiya20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 53%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.