Kashiwa Reysol
vs
Daejeon Citizen
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Kashiwa Reysol 2–1 Daejeon Citizen
The model makes it 48% Kashiwa Reysol, 24% draw, 28% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 2.10, Daejeon Citizen 1.46.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Kashiwa Reysol's rating is built from 58 matches and Daejeon Citizen's from 70 K League 1 matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Kashiwa Reysol are 8th on 3 points from 2 games; Daejeon Citizen are 7th on 4 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kashiwa Reysol have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Kyoto Sanga.
- Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Gwangju FC.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kashiwa Reysol vs Daejeon Citizen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kashiwa Reysol at 48% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kashiwa Reysol vs Daejeon Citizen
Kashiwa Reysol
- W5-1Port FC14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Jeonbuk Motors16 September 2026
Daejeon Citizen
- D1-1away to SHANGHAI SIPG13 October 2026
- W1-0Kyoto Sanga15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 3 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Kashiwa Reysol and Daejeon Citizen
Kashiwa Reysol
GoalsAssists
- K. Yuba11
Daejeon Citizen
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kashiwa Reysol carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.59 for Daejeon Citizen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.46 for Daejeon Citizen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kashiwa Reysol rate 0.77 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Daejeon Citizen rate 0.89 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kashiwa Reysol the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Kashiwa Reysol against 1.46 for Daejeon Citizen. Kashiwa Reysol's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.52 for Daejeon Citizen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kashiwa Reysol at home · Daejeon Citizen away
League matches only, this season — Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League, Daejeon Citizen in the K League 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Kashiwa Reysol 20 in the J1 League, Daejeon Citizen 32 in the K League 1.
Kashiwa Reysol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Daejeon Citizen have let in 11 there.
Daejeon Citizen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Kashiwa Reysol have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kashiwa Reysol
- at Newcastle Jets24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 36%
- vs Công An Nhân Dân1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 63%
- vs Buriram United10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 60%
- at Pohang Steelers16 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 38%
Daejeon Citizen
- vs Beijing Guoan24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 55%
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- vs Kashima9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.