Newcastle Jets
vs
SHANGHAI SIPG
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Newcastle Jets 2–1 SHANGHAI SIPG
The model makes it 47% Newcastle Jets, 25% draw, 28% SHANGHAI SIPG — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Newcastle Jets 1.91, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Newcastle Jets's rating is built from 29 A-League matches and SHANGHAI SIPG's from 58 Chinese Super League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 274 matches.
Key facts
- Newcastle Jets are bottom on 0 points from 2 games; SHANGHAI SIPG are 5th on 4 points from 2 games — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- SHANGHAI SIPG are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Chengdu Better City.
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newcastle Jets vs SHANGHAI SIPG
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newcastle Jets at 47% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Newcastle Jets vs SHANGHAI SIPG
Newcastle Jets
- L1-3Gamba Osaka13 October 2026
- L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026
SHANGHAI SIPG
- D1-1Daejeon Citizen13 October 2026
- W6-4away to Ratchaburi15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Newcastle Jets and SHANGHAI SIPG
Newcastle Jets
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
SHANGHAI SIPG
GoalsAssists
- P. Ampem40
- Wu Lei11
- Jaume Grau11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Newcastle Jets carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.43 for SHANGHAI SIPG. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.37 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newcastle Jets rate 0.73 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SHANGHAI SIPG rate 0.63 and 1.46.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newcastle Jets the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Newcastle Jets against 1.37 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Newcastle Jets's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.46 for SHANGHAI SIPG.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Newcastle Jets
- at Perth Glory7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 47%
- vs Kashiwa Reysol24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 39%
SHANGHAI SIPG
- vs Shenyang Urban8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 59%
- vs Buriram United24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 51%
- at Pohang Steelers1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.