VfL Osnabrück
vs
1. FC Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfL Osnabrück 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern
The model makes it 32% VfL Osnabrück, 29% draw, 39% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: VfL Osnabrück 1.16, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.36.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Edge to 1. FC Kaiserslautern: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. VfL Osnabrück's rating is built from 8 2. Bundesliga matches and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 690 matches.
Key facts
- VfL Osnabrück are 12th on 8 points from 8 games; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are 4th on 15 points from 8 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- VfL Osnabrück are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Arminia Bielefeld.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to VfL Bochum.
- Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 March 2024, ended FC Kaiserslautern 3–2 VfL Osnabrück.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
VfL Osnabrück
2. Bundesliga
- L1-2away to Arminia Bielefeld18 October 2026
- D1-1Dynamo Dresden10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Holstein Kiel19 September 2026
- L1-3Hertha BSC13 September 2026
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig6 September 2026
1. FC Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga
- W2-0VfL Bochum17 October 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026
- W1-0Eintracht Braunschweig19 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg12 September 2026
- W3-0SV Darmstadt 985 September 2026
What these results say
- VfL Osnabrück scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for VfL Osnabrück.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | VfL Osnabrück | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 4 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 10 March 2024FC Kaiserslautern 3–2 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 1 October 2023VfL Osnabrück 2–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 5 March 2022VfL Osnabrück 0–1 FC Kaiserslautern3. Liga
- 25 September 2021FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 24 March 2019FC Kaiserslautern 1–3 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 6 October 2018VfL Osnabrück 2–0 FC Kaiserslautern3. Liga
The two sides
VfL Osnabrück carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.61 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for VfL Osnabrück and 1.36 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Osnabrück rate 0.66 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Kaiserslautern rate 0.60 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VfL Osnabrück a 0% chance of the title and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 6.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for VfL Osnabrück against 1.36 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. VfL Osnabrück's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.02 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
How the model reaches 39% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, VfL Osnabrück's ratings add 27 points and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's ratings take away 19 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- VfL Osnabrück's ratings58%+27
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern's ratings39%−19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VfL Osnabrück at home · 1. FC Kaiserslautern away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
VfL Osnabrück1. FC Kaiserslautern
VfL Osnabrück are 12th after 8 2. Bundesliga matches (between 8th and 18th so far); 1. FC Kaiserslautern are 4th after 8 (between 3rd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: VfL Osnabrück 8, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 8.
VfL Osnabrück score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); 1. FC Kaiserslautern have let in 0 there.
1. FC Kaiserslautern score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); VfL Osnabrück have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
VfL Osnabrück
- at Karlsruher SC22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Hannover 9628 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at Energie Cottbus6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- vs Dynamo Dresden22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
- at Holstein Kiel28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.