Hertha BSC
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Hertha BSC 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg
The model makes it 42% Hertha BSC, 23% draw, 35% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 2.38, 4.35 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Hertha BSC 2.11, VfL Wolfsburg 1.88.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Hertha BSC's rating is built from 42 2. Bundesliga matches and VfL Wolfsburg's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 690 matches.
Key facts
- Hertha BSC are top on 22 points from 8 games; VfL Wolfsburg are 3rd on 16 points from 9 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Holstein Kiel.
- VfL Wolfsburg are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to VfL Bochum.
- Last 6 meetings: Hertha BSC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 October 2025, ended VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 Hertha BSC.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hertha BSC at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg
Hertha BSC
2. Bundesliga
- D0-0away to Holstein Kiel16 October 2026
- W2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden19 September 2026
- W3-1away to VfL Osnabrück13 September 2026
- W2-11. FC Magdeburg6 September 2026
VfL Wolfsburg
2. Bundesliga
- D1-1away to VfL Bochum23 October 2026
- W3-11. FC Heidenheim17 October 2026
- D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026
- W5-1SV Darmstadt 9818 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC St. Pauli12 September 2026
What these results say
- Hertha BSC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for VfL Wolfsburg.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg
- 8 October 2025VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 Hertha BSCFriendlies Clubs
- 27 May 2023VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
- 24 January 2023Hertha Berlin 0–5 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 15 January 2022VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
- 21 August 2021Hertha Berlin 1–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 27 February 2021VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
Leading scorers: Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg
Hertha BSC
GoalsAssists
- J. Brekalo45
- J. Þorsteinsson31
VfL Wolfsburg
GoalsAssists
- R. Glatzel51
- F. Reese46
- A. Bernhardsson43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hertha BSC carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.71 for VfL Wolfsburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Hertha BSC and 1.88 for VfL Wolfsburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hertha BSC rate 0.82 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Wolfsburg rate 1.06 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hertha BSC a 33.8% chance of the title and VfL Wolfsburg 21.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hertha BSC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Hertha BSC against 1.88 for VfL Wolfsburg. Hertha BSC's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.49 for VfL Wolfsburg.
How the model reaches 42% for Hertha BSC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hertha BSC to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Hertha BSC's ratings take away 12 points and VfL Wolfsburg's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Hertha BSC's ratings31%−12
- VfL Wolfsburg's ratings42%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hertha BSC at home · VfL Wolfsburg away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Hertha BSCVfL Wolfsburg
Hertha BSC are 1st after 8 2. Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); VfL Wolfsburg are 3rd after 9 (between 2nd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Hertha BSC 8, VfL Wolfsburg 9.
Hertha BSC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); VfL Wolfsburg have let in 3 there.
VfL Wolfsburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Hertha BSC have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hertha BSC
- at Energie Cottbus22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- vs Karlsruher SC28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 58%
- at Hannover 966 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
VfL Wolfsburg
- vs Holstein Kiel21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 59%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 51%
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 54%
- at SpVgg Greuther Fürth13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.