1. FC Magdeburg
vs
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Magdeburg 2–1 Karlsruher SC
The model makes it 59% 1. FC Magdeburg, 22% draw, 19% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.39, Karlsruher SC 1.18.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to 1. FC Magdeburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- 1. FC Magdeburg are 4th on 13 points from 7 games; Karlsruher SC are 17th on 5 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- 1. FC Magdeburg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Hannover 96.
- Karlsruher SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC St. Pauli.
- Last 6 meetings: Karlsruher SC 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 1–3 Karlsruher SC.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Magdeburg at 59% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC
1. FC Magdeburg
- W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026
- D1-1away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth18 September 2026
- W3-01. FC Kaiserslautern12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hertha BSC6 September 2026
- W2-0Holstein Kiel30 August 2026
Karlsruher SC
- L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026
- L0-11. FC Nürnberg19 September 2026
- L0-3Energie Cottbus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hannover 964 September 2026
- L2-5VfL Wolfsburg29 August 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Magdeburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 13 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
1. FC Magdeburg
Chance to finish in the top four · 34% today
Karlsruher SC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC
- 1 March 20261. FC Magdeburg 1–3 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 27 September 2025Karlsruher SC 1–0 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 22 February 2025Karlsruher SC 3–1 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 22 September 20241. FC Magdeburg 2–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 17 March 2024Karlsruher SC 7–0 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 7 October 2023FC Magdeburg 1–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC
1. FC Magdeburg
GoalsAssists
- E. Iyoha50
- A. Nollenberger31
- M. Żukowski30
Karlsruher SC
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
1. FC Magdeburg carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.33 for Karlsruher SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.39 goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.18 for Karlsruher SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Magdeburg rate 0.81 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karlsruher SC rate 0.60 and 1.71.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 5.2% chance of the title and Karlsruher SC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Magdeburg the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.18 for Karlsruher SC. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.71 for Karlsruher SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1. FC Magdeburg at home · Karlsruher SC away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
1. FC MagdeburgKarlsruher SC
1. FC Magdeburg are 4th after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 18th so far); Karlsruher SC are 17th after 7 (between 2nd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Magdeburg 7, Karlsruher SC 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
1. FC Magdeburg
- at Bayern München27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 4%
- at SV Darmstadt 9831 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- vs FC St. Pauli8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- at Arminia Bielefeld20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- vs Energie Cottbus29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 51%
Karlsruher SC
- at Borussia Mönchengladbach27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 15%
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 23%
- at VfL Bochum8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
- vs VfL Osnabrück22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- at Hertha BSC28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.