Academica
vs
Amarante
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Academica 2–1 Amarante
The model makes it 52% Academica, 25% draw, 23% Amarante — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Academica 1.95, Amarante 1.12.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
Edge to Academica: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Academica's rating is built from 7 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Amarante's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Academica are 6th on 12 points from 7 games; Amarante are 17th on 5 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Academica have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to União de Leiria.
- Amarante are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Portimonense.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 October 2026, ended Academica 3–2 Amarante.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Academica vs Amarante
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Academica at 52% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Academica vs Amarante
Academica
Segunda Liga
- W2-0away to União de Leiria11 October 2026
- L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Penafiel5 September 2026
- L0-2Lusitânia Lourosa29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Tondela21 August 2026
Amarante
Segunda Liga
- L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Leixoes6 September 2026
- W1-0Benfica B30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Vizela22 August 2026
What these results say
- Amarante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amarante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 17 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Academica vs Amarante
- 17 October 2026Academica 3–2 AmaranteTaça de Portugal
- 12 April 2026Academica 1–1 AmaranteLiga 3
- 29 March 2026Amarante 1–1 AcademicaLiga 3
- 22 October 2023Amarante 1–0 AcademicaTaça de Portugal
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Academica carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.27 for Amarante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Academica and 1.12 for Amarante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Academica rate 0.69 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amarante rate 0.55 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Academica a 2.9% chance of the title and Amarante 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Academica the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Academica against 1.12 for Amarante. Academica's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.74 for Amarante.
How the model reaches 52% for Academica to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Academica to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Academica's ratings take away 22 points and Amarante's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Academica's ratings22%−22
- Amarante's ratings52%+30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Academica at home · Amarante away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Academica 7, Amarante 7.
Amarante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Academica have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Academica
- at Portimonense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
- vs Torreense30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 42%
- at FC Porto B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 27%
Amarante
- vs Felgueiras 193215 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Sporting CP B30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 20%
- vs AVS6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.