Holstein Kiel
vs
Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Holstein Kiel 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld
The model makes it 37% Holstein Kiel, 28% draw, 35% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Holstein Kiel 1.44, Arminia Bielefeld 1.38.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Holstein Kiel's rating is built from 42 2. Bundesliga matches and Arminia Bielefeld's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 690 matches.
Key facts
- Holstein Kiel are bottom on 5 points from 8 games; Arminia Bielefeld are 8th on 11 points from 8 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Holstein Kiel have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Hertha BSC.
- Arminia Bielefeld are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to VfL Osnabrück.
- Last 5 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 Holstein Kiel.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Holstein Kiel at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga
- D0-0Hertha BSC16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026
- D1-1VfL Osnabrück19 September 2026
- L0-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim13 September 2026
- D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga
- W2-1VfL Osnabrück18 October 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum11 October 2026
- D2-21. FC Heidenheim20 September 2026
- L1-2away to SV Darmstadt 9811 September 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli4 September 2026
What these results say
- Holstein Kiel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Holstein Kiel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Holstein Kiel had two goals or fewer.
- Arminia Bielefeld scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arminia Bielefeld had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
- 23 January 2026Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 10 August 2025Holstein Kiel 0–2 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 2 April 2023Holstein Kiel 2–3 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 14 January 2023Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
- 17 September 2022Arminia Bielefeld 4–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres42
Arminia Bielefeld
GoalsAssists
- J. Grodowski51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Holstein Kiel carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.5 for Arminia Bielefeld. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.38 for Arminia Bielefeld. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Holstein Kiel rate 0.56 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arminia Bielefeld rate 0.74 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arminia Bielefeld, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Holstein Kiel a 0.1% chance of the title and Arminia Bielefeld 1.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Holstein Kiel the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Holstein Kiel against 1.38 for Arminia Bielefeld. Holstein Kiel's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.49 for Arminia Bielefeld.
How the model reaches 37% for Holstein Kiel to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Holstein Kiel to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Holstein Kiel's ratings take away 22 points and Arminia Bielefeld's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Holstein Kiel's ratings21%−22
- Arminia Bielefeld's ratings37%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Holstein Kiel at home · Arminia Bielefeld away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Holstein KielArminia Bielefeld
Holstein Kiel are 18th after 8 2. Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Arminia Bielefeld are 8th after 8 (between 5th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Holstein Kiel 8, Arminia Bielefeld 8.
Holstein Kiel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Arminia Bielefeld have let in 3 there.
Arminia Bielefeld score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Holstein Kiel have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Holstein Kiel
- at VfL Wolfsburg21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 19%
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
- at Karlsruher SC6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
Arminia Bielefeld
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
- at SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- vs Dynamo Dresden6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.