1. FC Nürnberg
vs
SV Darmstadt 98
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 SV Darmstadt 98
The model makes it 61% 1. FC Nürnberg, 21% draw, 18% SV Darmstadt 98 — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.45, SV Darmstadt 98 1.10.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to 1. FC Nürnberg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. 1. FC Nürnberg's rating is built from 42 2. Bundesliga matches and SV Darmstadt 98's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 690 matches.
Key facts
- 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd on 18 points from 8 games; SV Darmstadt 98 are 16th on 8 points from 9 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- 1. FC Nürnberg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Energie Cottbus.
- SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FC St. Pauli.
- Last 6 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 1. FC Nürnberg.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Nürnberg at 61% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Nürnberg
2. Bundesliga
- D1-1away to Energie Cottbus16 October 2026
- D4-4VfL Wolfsburg10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Karlsruher SC19 September 2026
- W2-1Hannover 9611 September 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel5 September 2026
SV Darmstadt 98
2. Bundesliga
- D0-0FC St. Pauli23 October 2026
- L0-4away to Karlsruher SC18 October 2026
- W3-1Energie Cottbus10 October 2026
- L1-5away to VfL Wolfsburg18 September 2026
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld11 September 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Nürnberg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SV Darmstadt 98 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SV Darmstadt 98 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 18 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98
- 23 January 2026SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 8 August 20251. FC Nürnberg 0–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 31 January 20251. FC Nürnberg 1–0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 25 August 2024SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 31 March 2023FC Nurnberg 0–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 17 September 2022SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Nürnberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Zoma70
- P. Scobel51
- A. Marhiev32
SV Darmstadt 98
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
1. FC Nürnberg carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.36 for SV Darmstadt 98. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.45 goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.10 for SV Darmstadt 98. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Nürnberg rate 0.88 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Darmstadt 98 rate 0.60 and 1.61.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 27.1% chance of the title and SV Darmstadt 98 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.45 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.10 for SV Darmstadt 98. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.61 for SV Darmstadt 98.
How the model reaches 61% for 1. FC Nürnberg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1. FC Nürnberg to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, 1. FC Nürnberg's ratings take away 11 points and SV Darmstadt 98's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- 1. FC Nürnberg's ratings32%−11
- SV Darmstadt 98's ratings61%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1. FC Nürnberg at home · SV Darmstadt 98 away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
1. FC NürnbergSV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd after 8 2. Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); SV Darmstadt 98 are 16th after 9 (between 3rd and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Nürnberg 8, SV Darmstadt 98 9.
1. FC Nürnberg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); SV Darmstadt 98 have let in 4 there.
SV Darmstadt 98 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); 1. FC Nürnberg have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
1. FC Nürnberg
- vs Eintracht Braunschweig21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 59%
- at 1. FC Heidenheim27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
- vs VfL Bochum6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 54%
SV Darmstadt 98
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- at VfL Bochum27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
- vs Eintracht Braunschweig6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- at Hertha BSC13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.