Esbjerg
vs
FC Fredericia
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Esbjerg 1–2 FC Fredericia
The model makes it 30% Esbjerg, 25% draw, 45% FC Fredericia — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Esbjerg 1.40, FC Fredericia 1.86.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Fredericia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Esbjerg are bottom on 6 points from 10 games; FC Fredericia are 3rd on 17 points from 10 games — 1. Division.
- Esbjerg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Aalborg.
- FC Fredericia are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Hillerød.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Fredericia 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended FC Fredericia 1–0 Esbjerg.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Fredericia at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia
Esbjerg
- D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026
- L0-3away to AB Copenhagen19 September 2026
- D2-2HB Koge12 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Fredericia5 September 2026
- L0-2Vendsyssel FF30 August 2026
FC Fredericia
- W2-0away to Hillerød10 October 2026
- D2-2Vejle20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Kolding IF12 September 2026
- W1-0Esbjerg5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hvidovre30 August 2026
What these results say
- Esbjerg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Esbjerg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Fredericia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Esbjerg | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 6 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Esbjerg
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 73% today
FC Fredericia
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 21% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia
- 5 September 2026FC Fredericia 1–0 Esbjerg1. Division
- 18 July 2026Esbjerg 0–1 FC FredericiaFriendlies Clubs
- 27 April 2025FC Fredericia 1–1 Esbjerg1. Division
- 22 April 2025Esbjerg 0–2 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 19 October 2024Esbjerg 0–3 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 11 August 2024FC Fredericia 4–0 Esbjerg1. Division
The two sides
Esbjerg carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.41 for FC Fredericia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Esbjerg and 1.86 for FC Fredericia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esbjerg rate 0.53 in attack and 2.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Fredericia rate 0.67 and 1.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esbjerg a 0% chance of the title and FC Fredericia 20.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Fredericia the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Esbjerg against 1.86 for FC Fredericia. Esbjerg's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.62 for FC Fredericia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esbjerg at home · FC Fredericia away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Esbjerg 10, FC Fredericia 10.
Esbjerg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); FC Fredericia have let in 1 there.
FC Fredericia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Esbjerg have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Esbjerg
- vs FC Nordsjaelland28 Oct · DBU Pokalenwin 17%
- vs Hvidovre31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 33%
- at Hobro7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs AB Copenhagen21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 35%
- at Aalborg26 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
FC Fredericia
- vs AB Copenhagen31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- at Vejle6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- vs Hillerød19 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 60%
- at Hobro29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.