FC Eindhoven
vs
Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: FC Eindhoven 2–1 Jong Ajax
The model makes it 49% FC Eindhoven, 25% draw, 26% Jong Ajax — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Eindhoven 1.87, Jong Ajax 1.19.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. FC Eindhoven's rating is built from 49 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong Ajax's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Eindhoven are 15th on 11 points from 11 games; Jong Ajax are 16th on 11 points from 11 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- FC Eindhoven are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Vitesse.
- Jong Ajax have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to De Graafschap.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Eindhoven 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended FC Eindhoven 2–1 Jong Ajax.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Eindhoven at 49% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax
FC Eindhoven
Eerste Divisie
- L0-1Vitesse16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Almere City FC9 October 2026
- D2-2De Graafschap3 October 2026
- L2-4away to NAC Breda26 September 2026
- W3-1Emmen18 September 2026
Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1De Graafschap19 October 2026
- L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026
- D0-0Roda18 September 2026
- L1-6away to Jong Utrecht14 September 2026
- L0-2Waalwijk11 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Eindhoven failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Eindhoven had three goals or more.
- Jong Ajax failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | FC Eindhoven | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 | Jong Ajax | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax
- 6 March 2026FC Eindhoven 2–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 21 November 2025Jong Ajax 1–3 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 3 March 2025Jong Ajax 0–2 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 24 August 2024FC Eindhoven 0–3 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 23 December 2023FC Eindhoven 2–2 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 25 September 2023Jong Ajax 1–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax
FC Eindhoven
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Jong Ajax
GoalsAssists
- E. Ünüvar60
- D. Pugno52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Eindhoven carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.17 for Jong Ajax. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.19 for Jong Ajax. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Eindhoven rate 0.55 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jong Ajax rate 0.53 and 2.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Eindhoven the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for FC Eindhoven against 1.19 for Jong Ajax. FC Eindhoven's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.09 for Jong Ajax.
How the model reaches 49% for FC Eindhoven to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Eindhoven to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC Eindhoven's ratings take away 28 points and Jong Ajax's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FC Eindhoven's ratings16%−28
- Jong Ajax's ratings49%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Eindhoven at home · Jong Ajax away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC Eindhoven 11, Jong Ajax 11.
FC Eindhoven score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Jong Ajax have let in 4 there.
Jong Ajax score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); FC Eindhoven have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Eindhoven
- at VVV Venlo14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Waalwijk21 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- at FC Volendam29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
Jong Ajax
- at FC Volendam20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 19%
- vs Jong AZ23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 38%
- vs Heracles27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.