Vejle
vs
Aarhus Fremad
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Vejle 1–0 Aarhus Fremad
The model makes it 49% Vejle, 28% draw, 23% Aarhus Fremad — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Vejle 1.57, Aarhus Fremad 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Vejle: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vejle are 2nd on 19 points from 10 games; Aarhus Fremad are 6th on 13 points from 10 games — 1. Division.
- Vejle are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Hvidovre.
- Aarhus Fremad are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to AB Copenhagen.
- Last 5 meetings: Aarhus Fremad 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Vejle.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vejle vs Aarhus Fremad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vejle at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vejle vs Aarhus Fremad
Vejle
- L1-2Hvidovre9 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Fredericia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hobro11 September 2026
- W4-1Vendsyssel FF4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aarhus Fremad30 August 2026
Aarhus Fremad
- L0-2away to AB Copenhagen9 October 2026
- L1-3Hvidovre19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 September 2026
- W2-1Kolding IF6 September 2026
- D0-0Vejle30 August 2026
What these results say
- Vejle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus Fremad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vejle | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 19 |
| 6 | Aarhus Fremad | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vejle
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 21% today
Aarhus Fremad
Chance to finish in the top four · 33% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Vejle vs Aarhus Fremad
- 30 August 2026Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Vejle1. Division
- 4 February 2026Vejle 0–3 Aarhus FremadFriendlies Clubs
- 12 February 2023Vejle 1–2 Aarhus FremadFriendlies Clubs
- 17 July 2022Vejle 0–0 Aarhus FremadFriendlies Clubs
- 17 August 2020Vejle 3–2 Aarhus FremadFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vejle carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.26 for Aarhus Fremad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Vejle and 0.90 for Aarhus Fremad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vejle rate 0.61 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aarhus Fremad rate 0.48 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vejle a 21.4% chance of the title and Aarhus Fremad 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vejle the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Vejle against 0.90 for Aarhus Fremad. Vejle's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.58 for Aarhus Fremad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vejle at home · Aarhus Fremad away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Vejle 10, Aarhus Fremad 10.
Vejle score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Aarhus Fremad have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vejle
- at Vendsyssel FF1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 44%
- vs FC Fredericia6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 43%
- vs HB Koge21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 56%
- at AB Copenhagen27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
Aarhus Fremad
- vs Hillerød1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- at Hvidovre9 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 25%
- vs Hobro20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 49%
- at HB Koge28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.