Hobro
vs
Vendsyssel FF
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Hobro 1–0 Vendsyssel FF
The model makes it 47% Hobro, 27% draw, 26% Vendsyssel FF — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hobro 1.59, Vendsyssel FF 1.03.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hobro are 5th on 14 points from 10 games; Vendsyssel FF are 9th on 10 points from 10 games — 1. Division.
- Hobro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Kolding IF.
- Vendsyssel FF are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to HB Koge.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 August 2026, ended Hobro 0–4 Vendsyssel FF.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hobro vs Vendsyssel FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hobro at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hobro vs Vendsyssel FF
Hobro
- D1-1Kolding IF10 October 2026
- L2-5away to HB Koge21 September 2026
- D0-0Vejle11 September 2026
- L1-3Hvidovre4 September 2026
- L1-3away to Hillerød30 August 2026
Vendsyssel FF
- L0-2HB Koge11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Aalborg20 September 2026
- D0-0Aarhus Fremad11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Vejle4 September 2026
- W2-0away to Esbjerg30 August 2026
What these results say
- Hobro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hobro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hobro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vendsyssel FF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hobro | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Vendsyssel FF | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hobro
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
Vendsyssel FF
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 59% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hobro vs Vendsyssel FF
- 5 August 2026Hobro 0–4 Vendsyssel FFDBU Pokalen
- 2 August 2026Vendsyssel FF 1–2 Hobro1. Division
- 14 February 2026Hobro 0–1 Vendsyssel FFFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2025Vendsyssel FF 2–0 Hobro1. Division
- 16 April 2025Hobro 3–1 Vendsyssel FF1. Division
- 21 February 2025Hobro 1–0 Vendsyssel FF1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hobro carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.07 for Vendsyssel FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Hobro and 1.03 for Vendsyssel FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hobro rate 0.48 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vendsyssel FF rate 0.42 and 2.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hobro a 0.2% chance of the title and Vendsyssel FF 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hobro the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Hobro against 1.03 for Vendsyssel FF. Hobro's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/2.03 for Vendsyssel FF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hobro at home · Vendsyssel FF away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Hobro 10, Vendsyssel FF 10.
Hobro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Vendsyssel FF have let in 0 there.
Vendsyssel FF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Hobro have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hobro
- at Aalborg30 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 27%
- vs Esbjerg7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- at Aarhus Fremad20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 23%
- vs FC Fredericia29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
Vendsyssel FF
- vs Vejle1 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- at AB Copenhagen6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 19%
- vs Hvidovre21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 29%
- at Hillerød28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.