Regular Season - 14 · 6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Dordrecht vs NAC Breda Eerste Divisie prediction

M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht

Our model says: Dordrecht 1–2 NAC Breda

The model makes it 33% Dordrecht, 27% draw, 40% NAC Breda — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Dordrecht 1.38, NAC Breda 1.60.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.

Edge to NAC Breda: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Dordrecht's rating is built from 49 Eerste Divisie matches and NAC Breda's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Dordrecht are 18th on 11 points from 11 games; NAC Breda are 5th on 20 points from 11 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Dordrecht have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Jong PSV U21.
  • NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Helmond Sport.
  • Last 6 meetings: Dordrecht 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 April 2024, ended NAC Breda 1–4 Dordrecht.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Dordrecht vs NAC Breda

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Dordrecht win Draw NAC Breda win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 0–27%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Dordrecht first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 44%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NAC Breda at 40% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Dordrecht vs NAC Breda

Dordrecht

Eerste Divisie

  • W1-0away to Jong PSV U2119 October 2026
  • L0-3Emmen9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Den Bosch3 October 2026
  • W3-2Almere City FC25 September 2026
  • L0-3away to FC OSS18 September 2026

NAC Breda

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026
  • W1-0MVV9 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Vitesse3 October 2026
  • W4-2FC Eindhoven26 September 2026
  • W2-1away to De Graafschap20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Dordrecht conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • NAC Breda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • NAC Breda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • NAC Breda won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Dordrecht113261427-1311
5NAC Breda116232219+320

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs NAC Breda

  • 12 April 2024NAC Breda 1–4 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 11 August 2023Dordrecht 2–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 24 February 2023NAC Breda 3–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 22 October 2022Dordrecht 0–3 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 22 April 2022NAC Breda 1–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 5 November 2021Dordrecht 2–1 NAC BredaEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Dordrecht and NAC Breda

Dordrecht

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

NAC Breda

GoalsAssists

  • C. Brym60

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Dordrecht carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.34 for NAC Breda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Dordrecht and 1.60 for NAC Breda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Dordrecht rate 0.47 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NAC Breda rate 0.65 and 1.81.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dordrecht a 0% chance of the title and NAC Breda 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives NAC Breda the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Dordrecht against 1.60 for NAC Breda. Dordrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.81 for NAC Breda.

How the model reaches 40% for NAC Breda to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NAC Breda to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Dordrecht's ratings add 39 points and NAC Breda's ratings take away 28 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Dordrecht's ratings68%+39
  4. NAC Breda's ratings40%−28

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

DordrechtNAC Breda
11Matches11
3W 2D 6LRecord6W 2D 3L
14 1.3 per gameGoals scored22 2.0 per game
27 2.5 per gameGoals conceded19 1.7 per game
1 of 11Clean sheets2 of 11
3 of 11Failed to score1 of 11
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
26 2.4 per gameYellow cards23 2.1 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 5×

Dordrecht at home · NAC Breda away

5Played6
2W 0D 3LRecord3W 2D 1L
8–13Goals for – against12–10
0 of 5Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Dordrecht 11, NAC Breda 11.

Dordrecht scored 523212
NAC Breda conceded 322534

Dordrecht score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); NAC Breda have let in 3 there.

NAC Breda scored 245146
Dordrecht conceded 643319

NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Dordrecht have let in 9 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Dordrecht

  • vs Heracles14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 17%
  • at Helmond Sport20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
  • vs Vitesse27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 30%

NAC Breda

  • vs Emmen14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
  • at Almere City FC20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
  • vs Den Bosch27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 51%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.