Hvidovre
vs
HB Koge
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Hvidovre 2–0 HB Koge
The model makes it 54% Hvidovre, 25% draw, 21% HB Koge — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Hvidovre 1.90, HB Koge 0.99.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Hvidovre: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hvidovre are top on 24 points from 10 games; HB Koge are 8th on 10 points from 10 games — 1. Division.
- Hvidovre are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Vejle.
- HB Koge are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Vendsyssel FF.
- Last 6 meetings: Hvidovre 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended HB Koge 0–2 Hvidovre.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hvidovre vs HB Koge
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hvidovre at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hvidovre vs HB Koge
Hvidovre
- W2-1away to Vejle9 October 2026
- W3-1away to Aarhus Fremad19 September 2026
- D2-2Aalborg12 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hobro4 September 2026
- W2-1FC Fredericia30 August 2026
HB Koge
- W2-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 October 2026
- W5-2Hobro21 September 2026
- D2-2away to Esbjerg12 September 2026
- D1-1Hillerød4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aalborg29 August 2026
What these results say
- Hvidovre went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Hvidovre scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hvidovre conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- HB Koge went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- HB Koge scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 24 |
| 8 | HB Koge | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hvidovre
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 55% today
HB Koge
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hvidovre vs HB Koge
- 15 August 2026HB Koge 0–2 Hvidovre1. Division
- 3 July 2026Hvidovre 1–0 HB KogeFriendlies Clubs
- 23 October 2025Hvidovre 3–1 HB Koge1. Division
- 27 September 2025HB Koge 0–2 Hvidovre1. Division
- 29 July 2025Hvidovre 4–3 HB KogeDBU Pokalen
- 8 July 2025Hvidovre 4–2 HB KogeFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Hvidovre carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.17 for HB Koge. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Hvidovre and 0.99 for HB Koge. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hvidovre rate 0.60 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HB Koge rate 0.50 and 1.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hvidovre a 55% chance of the title and HB Koge 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hvidovre the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Hvidovre against 0.99 for HB Koge. Hvidovre's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.95 for HB Koge.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hvidovre at home · HB Koge away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Hvidovre 10, HB Koge 10.
Hvidovre score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); HB Koge have let in 1 there.
HB Koge score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Hvidovre have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hvidovre
- at Esbjerg31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 41%
- vs Aarhus Fremad9 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- at Vendsyssel FF21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 43%
- vs Kolding IF27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 53%
HB Koge
- at Kolding IF31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 29%
- vs Aalborg6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 45%
- at Vejle21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 19%
- vs Aarhus Fremad28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.