Budapest Honved
vs
Debreceni VSC
NB I prediction
Our model says: Budapest Honved 2–1 Debreceni VSC
The model makes it 37% Budapest Honved, 26% draw, 37% Debreceni VSC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Budapest Honved 1.61, Debreceni VSC 1.58.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Budapest Honved and Debreceni VSC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Budapest Honved are bottom on 7 points from 8 games; Debreceni VSC are 8th on 10 points from 9 games — NB I.
- Budapest Honved are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Ujpest.
- Debreceni VSC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ferencvarosi TC.
- Last 6 meetings: Debreceni VSC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 October 2025, ended Debreceni VSC 1–2 Budapest Honved.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Budapest Honved at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC
Budapest Honved
- D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Puskas Academy18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Gyori ETO FC6 September 2026
- W1-0Zalaegerszegi TE29 August 2026
- L1-2Vasas14 August 2026
Debreceni VSC
- D1-1away to Ferencvarosi TC10 October 2026
- L2-4Vasas19 September 2026
- W4-2away to Paks5 September 2026
- D2-2MTK Budapest28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Kisvarda FC23 August 2026
What these results say
- Budapest Honved scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Debreceni VSC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Budapest Honved
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Debreceni VSC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC
- 30 October 2025Debreceni VSC 1–2 Budapest HonvedMagyar Kupa
- 13 May 2023Debreceni VSC 0–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 19 February 2023Budapest Honved 2–3 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 1 October 2022Debreceni VSC 4–3 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 5 March 2022Budapest Honved 4–2 Debreceni VSCNB I
- 6 November 2021Debreceni VSC 5–3 Budapest HonvedNB I
Leading scorers: Budapest Honved and Debreceni VSC
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Debreceni VSC
GoalsAssists
- Á. Szendrei42
- B. Dzsudzsák40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Budapest Honved carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.45 for Debreceni VSC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Budapest Honved and 1.58 for Debreceni VSC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Budapest Honved rate 0.65 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Debreceni VSC rate 0.67 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Debreceni VSC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Budapest Honved a 0.3% chance of the title and Debreceni VSC 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Budapest Honved the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Budapest Honved against 1.58 for Debreceni VSC. Budapest Honved's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.48 for Debreceni VSC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Budapest Honved at home · Debreceni VSC away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Budapest Honved 8, Debreceni VSC 9.
Budapest Honved score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Debreceni VSC have let in 4 there.
Debreceni VSC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Budapest Honved have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Budapest Honved
- vs Kisvarda FC31 Oct · NB Iwin 42%
- at MTK Budapest7 Nov · NB Iwin 33%
- vs Paks21 Nov · NB Iwin 35%
- at Vasas28 Nov · NB Iwin 23%
Debreceni VSC
- at Puskas Academy31 Oct · NB Iwin 29%
- vs Ujpest7 Nov · NB Iwin 42%
- at Nyiregyhaza21 Nov · NB Iwin 41%
- at Gyori ETO FC28 Nov · NB Iwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.