Zalaegerszegi TE
vs
Kisvarda FC
NB I prediction
Our model says: Zalaegerszegi TE 1–0 Kisvarda FC
The model makes it 43% Zalaegerszegi TE, 29% draw, 28% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Zalaegerszegi TE 1.39, Kisvarda FC 1.03.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zalaegerszegi TE are 10th on 9 points from 9 games; Kisvarda FC are 7th on 10 points from 9 games — NB I.
- Zalaegerszegi TE have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Nyiregyhaza.
- Kisvarda FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Vasas.
- Last 6 meetings: Kisvarda FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Zalaegerszegi TE 2–0 Kisvarda FC.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zalaegerszegi TE vs Kisvarda FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zalaegerszegi TE at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zalaegerszegi TE vs Kisvarda FC
Zalaegerszegi TE
- W5-1Nyiregyhaza11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ujpest20 September 2026
- W1-0Puskas Academy6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Budapest Honved29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Gyori ETO FC23 August 2026
Kisvarda FC
- D1-1away to Vasas10 October 2026
- L0-1Paks19 September 2026
- W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
- D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Debreceni VSC23 August 2026
What these results say
- Zalaegerszegi TE conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kisvarda FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zalaegerszegi TE
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
Kisvarda FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zalaegerszegi TE vs Kisvarda FC
- 4 April 2026Zalaegerszegi TE 2–0 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 14 December 2025Kisvarda FC 3–3 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 30 August 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 2 March 2024Kisvarda FC 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 5 November 2023Kisvarda FC 0–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 30 July 2023Zalaegerszegi TE 0–2 Kisvarda FCNB I
Leading scorers: Zalaegerszegi TE and Kisvarda FC
Zalaegerszegi TE
GoalsAssists
- Arthur Henrique30
Kisvarda FC
GoalsAssists
- C. Herc30
- M. Matanović22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zalaegerszegi TE carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.37 for Kisvarda FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Zalaegerszegi TE and 1.03 for Kisvarda FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zalaegerszegi TE rate 0.63 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kisvarda FC rate 0.48 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kisvarda FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zalaegerszegi TE a 0.4% chance of the title and Kisvarda FC 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zalaegerszegi TE the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Zalaegerszegi TE against 1.03 for Kisvarda FC. Zalaegerszegi TE's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.32 for Kisvarda FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zalaegerszegi TE at home · Kisvarda FC away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Zalaegerszegi TE 9, Kisvarda FC 9.
Zalaegerszegi TE score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Kisvarda FC have let in 5 there.
Kisvarda FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Zalaegerszegi TE have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zalaegerszegi TE
- vs MTK Budapest31 Oct · NB Iwin 45%
- at Paks7 Nov · NB Iwin 28%
- vs Vasas21 Nov · NB Iwin 33%
- at Ferencvarosi TC28 Nov · NB Iwin 20%
Kisvarda FC
- at Budapest Honved31 Oct · NB Iwin 30%
- vs Puskas Academy7 Nov · NB Iwin 30%
- at Ujpest21 Nov · NB Iwin 27%
- vs Nyiregyhaza28 Nov · NB Iwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.