MTK Budapest
vs
Budapest Honved
NB I prediction
Our model says: MTK Budapest 2–1 Budapest Honved
The model makes it 41% MTK Budapest, 25% draw, 34% Budapest Honved — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.74, Budapest Honved 1.53.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. MTK Budapest's rating is built from 43 Hungarian NB I matches and Budapest Honved's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 455 matches.
Key facts
- MTK Budapest are 8th on 12 points from 10 games; Budapest Honved are 10th on 10 points from 9 games — NB I.
- MTK Budapest have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Vasas.
- Budapest Honved have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Nyiregyhaza.
- Last 6 meetings: MTK Budapest 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Budapest Honved 3–3 MTK Budapest.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MTK Budapest at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved
MTK Budapest
NB I
- W1-0Vasas16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Paks10 October 2026
- L1-2Gyori ETO FC20 September 2026
- L1-2Kisvarda FC5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Debreceni VSC28 August 2026
Budapest Honved
NB I
- W1-0away to Nyiregyhaza17 October 2026
- D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Puskas Academy18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Gyori ETO FC6 September 2026
- W1-0Zalaegerszegi TE29 August 2026
What these results say
- MTK Budapest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | MTK Budapest | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Budapest Honved | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MTK Budapest vs Budapest Honved
- 1 August 2026Budapest Honved 3–3 MTK BudapestNB I
- 13 July 2024MTK Budapest 4–3 Budapest HonvedFriendlies Clubs
- 24 January 2024MTK Budapest 1–1 Budapest HonvedFriendlies Clubs
- 12 March 2022MTK Budapest 1–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 21 November 2021Budapest Honved 3–0 MTK BudapestNB I
- 7 August 2021MTK Budapest 1–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
Leading scorers: MTK Budapest and Budapest Honved
MTK Budapest
GoalsAssists
- G. Jurek51
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi43
- I. Bognár22
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
MTK Budapest carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.4 for Budapest Honved. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for MTK Budapest and 1.53 for Budapest Honved. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MTK Budapest rate 0.67 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Budapest Honved rate 0.64 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MTK Budapest a 0.3% chance of the title and Budapest Honved 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MTK Budapest the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for MTK Budapest against 1.53 for Budapest Honved. MTK Budapest's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.56 for Budapest Honved.
How the model reaches 41% for MTK Budapest to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for MTK Budapest to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, MTK Budapest's ratings take away 24 points and Budapest Honved's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- MTK Budapest's ratings18%−24
- Budapest Honved's ratings41%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
MTK Budapest at home · Budapest Honved away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MTK BudapestBudapest Honved
MTK Budapest are 8th after 10 NB I matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Budapest Honved are 10th after 9 (between 2nd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: MTK Budapest 10, Budapest Honved 9.
MTK Budapest score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Budapest Honved have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
MTK Budapest
- at Puskas Academy21 Nov · NB Iwin 24%
- vs Ujpest28 Nov · NB Iwin 40%
- at Nyiregyhaza5 Dec · NB Iwin 39%
Budapest Honved
- vs Paks21 Nov · NB Iwin 37%
- at Vasas28 Nov · NB Iwin 26%
- at Ferencvarosi TC2 Dec · NB Iwin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.