Bandırmaspor
vs
Iğdır FK
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bandırmaspor 1–0 Iğdır FK
The model makes it 46% Bandırmaspor, 31% draw, 23% Iğdır FK — fair odds of 2.17, 3.23 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Bandırmaspor 1.32, Iğdır FK 0.78.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bandırmaspor are 9th on 14 points from 10 games; Iğdır FK are 3rd on 19 points from 9 games — 1. Lig.
- Bandırmaspor have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sivasspor.
- Iğdır FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Batman Petrolspor.
- Last 4 meetings: Bandırmaspor 1 win to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 16 March 2026, ended Bandırmaspor 0–0 Iğdır FK.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bandırmaspor at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK
Bandırmaspor
- D1-1Sivasspor13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vanspor FK9 October 2026
- L0-1Ümraniyespor18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sarıyer11 September 2026
- W6-0Boluspor5 September 2026
Iğdır FK
- W2-1Batman Petrolspor10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor18 September 2026
- W1-0Mardin 196913 September 2026
- W2-1away to İstanbulspor7 September 2026
- W4-2Manisa F.K.3 September 2026
What these results say
- Bandırmaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bandırmaspor had two goals or fewer.
- Iğdır FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Iğdır FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Iğdır FK won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bandırmaspor | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bandırmaspor
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
Iğdır FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 29% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK
- 16 March 2026Bandırmaspor 0–0 Iğdır FK1. Lig
- 3 November 2025Iğdır FK 1–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 14 April 2025Bandırmaspor 1–1 Iğdır FK1. Lig
- 7 December 2024Iğdır FK 0–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Bandırmaspor and Iğdır FK
Bandırmaspor
GoalsAssists
- G. Bruno40
- A. Badji33
Iğdır FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bandırmaspor carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.4 for Iğdır FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Bandırmaspor and 0.78 for Iğdır FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bandırmaspor rate 0.54 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iğdır FK rate 0.61 and 1.50.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Iğdır FK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bandırmaspor a 2.3% chance of the title and Iğdır FK 4.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bandırmaspor the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bandırmaspor against 0.78 for Iğdır FK. Bandırmaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.5 for Iğdır FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bandırmaspor at home · Iğdır FK away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bandırmaspor 10, Iğdır FK 9.
Iğdır FK score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Bandırmaspor have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bandırmaspor
- at Bursaspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Fatih Karagümrük8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 41%
- at Mardin 196921 Nov · 1. Ligwin 27%
- vs Batman Petrolspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 52%
Iğdır FK
- vs Antalyaspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Sarıyer6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 33%
- vs Ümraniyespor20 Nov · 1. Ligwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.