Keçiörengücü
vs
Manisa F.K.
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Keçiörengücü 2–1 Manisa F.K.
The model makes it 60% Keçiörengücü, 22% draw, 18% Manisa F.K. — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Keçiörengücü 2.29, Manisa F.K. 1.04.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
Edge to Keçiörengücü: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Keçiörengücü's rating is built from 50 TFF 1. Lig matches and Manisa F.K.'s from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Keçiörengücü are 4th on 20 points from 11 games; Manisa F.K. are 16th on 10 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Keçiörengücü are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Fatih Karagümrük.
- Manisa F.K. have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Muğlaspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Keçiörengücü 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Keçiörengücü 2–1 Manisa F.K..
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Keçiörengücü at 60% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.
Keçiörengücü
1. Lig
- W2-1away to Fatih Karagümrük19 October 2026
- D0-0Iğdır FK14 October 2026
- W2-0away to Bodrum FK9 October 2026
- D1-1Sivasspor19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vanspor FK12 September 2026
Manisa F.K.
1. Lig
- L3-4Muğlaspor19 October 2026
- D1-1Esenler Erokspor15 October 2026
- L2-3away to Kayserispor10 October 2026
- L0-1İstanbulspor20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük13 September 2026
What these results say
- Keçiörengücü went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Keçiörengücü scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Keçiörengücü had two goals or fewer.
- Manisa F.K. did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Keçiörengücü | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 20 |
| 16 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Keçiörengücü vs Manisa F.K.
- 26 April 2026Keçiörengücü 2–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
- 20 December 2025Manisa F.K. 2–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 5 April 2025Manisa F.K. 1–2 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 23 November 2024Keçiörengücü 4–0 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
- 21 January 2024Keçiörengücü 1–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
- 20 August 2023Manisa F.K. 0–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
Leading scorers: Keçiörengücü and Manisa F.K.
Keçiörengücü
GoalsAssists
- M. Diouf72
- F. Ezeh33
Manisa F.K.
GoalsAssists
- J. Anziani71
- C. Sylla52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Keçiörengücü carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.3 for Manisa F.K.. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.29 goals for Keçiörengücü and 1.04 for Manisa F.K.. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Keçiörengücü rate 0.73 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manisa F.K. rate 0.64 and 1.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Keçiörengücü a 5.4% chance of the title and Manisa F.K. 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Keçiörengücü the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Keçiörengücü against 1.04 for Manisa F.K.. Keçiörengücü's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.93 for Manisa F.K..
How the model reaches 60% for Keçiörengücü to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Keçiörengücü to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Keçiörengücü's ratings take away 16 points and Manisa F.K.'s ratings add 32 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Keçiörengücü's ratings28%−16
- Manisa F.K.'s ratings60%+32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Keçiörengücü at home · Manisa F.K. away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Keçiörengücü 11, Manisa F.K. 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Keçiörengücü
- at İstanbulspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 50%
- vs Kayserispor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
- at Batman Petrolspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 38%
Manisa F.K.
- vs Pendikspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
- at Ümraniyespor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 28%
- vs Bandırmaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.