Muğlaspor
vs
İstanbulspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Muğlaspor 1–0 İstanbulspor
The model makes it 52% Muğlaspor, 27% draw, 21% İstanbulspor — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Muğlaspor 1.68, İstanbulspor 0.89.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Muğlaspor: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Muğlaspor are 12th on 12 points from 9 games; İstanbulspor are 19th on 5 points from 9 games — 1. Lig.
- Muğlaspor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fatih Karagümrük.
- İstanbulspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Esenler Erokspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Muğlaspor at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Muğlaspor vs İstanbulspor
Muğlaspor
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük11 October 2026
- D2-2Iğdır FK18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sivasspor13 September 2026
- D2-2Vanspor FK6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Ümraniyespor1 September 2026
İstanbulspor
- L0-1Esenler Erokspor10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Manisa F.K.20 September 2026
- L0-4away to Kayserispor14 September 2026
- L1-2Iğdır FK7 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bursaspor3 September 2026
What these results say
- Muğlaspor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Muğlaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Muğlaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- İstanbulspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- İstanbulspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Muğlaspor | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Muğlaspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
İstanbulspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Muğlaspor and İstanbulspor
Muğlaspor
GoalsAssists
- Y. Uzunoglu41
İstanbulspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Muğlaspor carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.2 for İstanbulspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Muğlaspor and 0.89 for İstanbulspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Muğlaspor rate 0.51 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; İstanbulspor rate 0.55 and 2.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Muğlaspor a 0.6% chance of the title and İstanbulspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Muğlaspor the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Muğlaspor against 0.89 for İstanbulspor. Muğlaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.03 for İstanbulspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Muğlaspor at home · İstanbulspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Muğlaspor 9, İstanbulspor 9.
Muğlaspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); İstanbulspor have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Muğlaspor
- at Kayserispor2 Nov · 1. Ligwin 25%
- vs Esenler Erokspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Batman Petrolspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 30%
İstanbulspor
- vs Mardin 19691 Nov · 1. Ligwin 28%
- at Pendikspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Keçiörengücü21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.