Pendikspor
vs
İstanbulspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Pendikspor 2–1 İstanbulspor
The model makes it 49% Pendikspor, 26% draw, 25% İstanbulspor — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pendikspor 1.78, İstanbulspor 1.11.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Pendikspor's rating is built from 50 TFF 1. Lig matches and İstanbulspor's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Pendikspor are 18th on 10 points from 11 games; İstanbulspor are 19th on 5 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Pendikspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Bursaspor.
- İstanbulspor are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Antalyaspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Pendikspor 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Pendikspor 1–1 İstanbulspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pendikspor at 49% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor
Pendikspor
1. Lig
- L0-2away to Bursaspor19 October 2026
- L1-2Vanspor FK13 October 2026
- L1-4away to Sivasspor9 October 2026
- D1-1Bodrum FK20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boluspor12 September 2026
İstanbulspor
1. Lig
- L0-2Antalyaspor18 October 2026
- L2-4away to Batman Petrolspor14 October 2026
- L0-1Esenler Erokspor10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Manisa F.K.20 September 2026
- L0-4away to Kayserispor14 September 2026
What these results say
- Pendikspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Pendikspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pendikspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- İstanbulspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- İstanbulspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pendikspor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pendikspor vs İstanbulspor
- 14 March 2026Pendikspor 1–1 İstanbulspor1. Lig
- 2 November 2025İstanbulspor 0–0 Pendikspor1. Lig
- 27 April 2025İstanbulspor 5–2 Pendikspor1. Lig
- 21 December 2024Pendikspor 1–1 İstanbulspor1. Lig
- 15 March 2024Pendikspor 1–0 İstanbulsporSüper Lig
- 4 November 2023İstanbulspor 2–4 PendiksporSüper Lig
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pendikspor carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.16 for İstanbulspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Pendikspor and 1.11 for İstanbulspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pendikspor rate 0.52 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; İstanbulspor rate 0.53 and 2.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pendikspor the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Pendikspor against 1.11 for İstanbulspor. Pendikspor's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.11 for İstanbulspor.
How the model reaches 49% for Pendikspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pendikspor to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Pendikspor's ratings take away 28 points and İstanbulspor's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Pendikspor's ratings16%−28
- İstanbulspor's ratings49%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pendikspor at home · İstanbulspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Pendikspor 11, İstanbulspor 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Pendikspor
- at Manisa F.K.22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Iğdır FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
- at Esenler Erokspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 20%
İstanbulspor
- vs Keçiörengücü21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 25%
- at Sarıyer29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- vs Ümraniyespor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.