Muğlaspor
vs
Esenler Erokspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Muğlaspor 1–0 Esenler Erokspor
The model makes it 37% Muğlaspor, 29% draw, 34% Esenler Erokspor — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Muğlaspor 1.27, Esenler Erokspor 1.21.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 958 settled matches.
A tight game: Muğlaspor and Esenler Erokspor are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Muğlaspor's rating is built from 11 TFF 1. Lig matches and Esenler Erokspor's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Muğlaspor are 9th on 15 points from 11 games; Esenler Erokspor are 14th on 12 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Muğlaspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win away to Manisa F.K..
- Esenler Erokspor are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Mardin 1969.
- Last 2 meetings: Esenler Erokspor 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 January 2018, ended Muğlaspor 2–2 Esenler Erokspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Muğlaspor at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Muğlaspor
1. Lig
- W4-3away to Manisa F.K.19 October 2026
- L0-3Bursaspor15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük11 October 2026
- D2-2Iğdır FK18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sivasspor13 September 2026
Esenler Erokspor
1. Lig
- W4-2Mardin 196919 October 2026
- D1-1away to Manisa F.K.15 October 2026
- W1-0away to İstanbulspor10 October 2026
- L0-2Fatih Karagümrük19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bursaspor13 September 2026
What these results say
- Muğlaspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Muğlaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Muğlaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Muğlaspor | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Esenler Erokspor | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor
- 21 January 2018Muğlaspor 2–2 Esenler Erokspor3. Lig - Group 2
- 26 August 2017Esenler Erokspor 2–0 Muğlaspor3. Lig - Group 2
Leading scorers: Muğlaspor and Esenler Erokspor
Muğlaspor
GoalsAssists
- Y. Uzunoglu41
Esenler Erokspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Muğlaspor carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.44 for Esenler Erokspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Muğlaspor and 1.21 for Esenler Erokspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Muğlaspor rate 0.57 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Esenler Erokspor rate 0.60 and 1.37.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Muğlaspor a 0.1% chance of the title and Esenler Erokspor 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Muğlaspor the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Muğlaspor against 1.21 for Esenler Erokspor. Muğlaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.37 for Esenler Erokspor.
How the model reaches 37% for Muğlaspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Muğlaspor to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Muğlaspor's ratings take away 25 points and Esenler Erokspor's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Muğlaspor's ratings19%−25
- Esenler Erokspor's ratings37%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Muğlaspor at home · Esenler Erokspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Muğlaspor 11, Esenler Erokspor 11.
Muğlaspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Esenler Erokspor have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Muğlaspor
- at Batman Petrolspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 25%
- vs Mardin 196929 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- vs Antalyaspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 44%
Esenler Erokspor
- vs Antalyaspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 50%
- at Boluspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 50%
- vs Pendikspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.