Sarıyer
vs
Iğdır FK
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Sarıyer 1–0 Iğdır FK
The model makes it 36% Sarıyer, 31% draw, 33% Iğdır FK — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sarıyer 1.12, Iğdır FK 1.03.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 940 settled matches.
A tight game: Sarıyer and Iğdır FK are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Sarıyer's rating is built from 49 TFF 1. Lig matches and Iğdır FK's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sarıyer are 8th on 16 points from 11 games; Iğdır FK are 3rd on 23 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Sarıyer are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sivasspor.
- Iğdır FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Boluspor.
- Last 4 meetings: Iğdır FK 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 January 2026, ended Sarıyer 1–0 Iğdır FK.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarıyer at 36% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK
Sarıyer
1. Lig
- D1-1away to Sivasspor17 October 2026
- L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ümraniyespor9 October 2026
- W2-1Boluspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Bandırmaspor11 September 2026
Iğdır FK
1. Lig
- W1-0Boluspor18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Keçiörengücü14 October 2026
- W2-1Batman Petrolspor10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor18 September 2026
- W1-0Mardin 196913 September 2026
What these results say
- Sarıyer scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sarıyer.
- Iğdır FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Iğdır FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sarıyer | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK
- 11 January 2026Sarıyer 1–0 Iğdır FK1. Lig
- 9 August 2025Iğdır FK 2–1 Sarıyer1. Lig
- 10 March 2024Sarıyer 0–0 Iğdır FK2. Lig
- 28 October 2023Iğdır FK 2–1 Sarıyer2. Lig
Leading scorers: Sarıyer and Iğdır FK
Sarıyer
GoalsAssists
- B. Kör41
Iğdır FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sarıyer carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.43 for Iğdır FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Sarıyer and 1.03 for Iğdır FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarıyer rate 0.52 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iğdır FK rate 0.55 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Iğdır FK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sarıyer a 0.1% chance of the title and Iğdır FK 1.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarıyer the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sarıyer against 1.03 for Iğdır FK. Sarıyer's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.32 for Iğdır FK.
How the model reaches 36% for Sarıyer to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sarıyer to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Sarıyer's ratings take away 26 points and Iğdır FK's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Sarıyer's ratings18%−26
- Iğdır FK's ratings36%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarıyer at home · Iğdır FK away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Sarıyer 11, Iğdır FK 11.
Iğdır FK score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Sarıyer have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sarıyer
- at Kayserispor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 13%
- vs İstanbulspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 52%
- at Mardin 19696 Dec · 1. Ligwin 22%
Iğdır FK
- vs Ümraniyespor20 Nov · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Pendikspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- vs Sivasspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.