Sarıyer
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Sarıyer 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük
The model makes it 32% Sarıyer, 29% draw, 39% Fatih Karagümrük — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sarıyer 1.15, Fatih Karagümrük 1.30.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Fatih Karagümrük: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sarıyer are 8th on 15 points from 10 games; Fatih Karagümrük are 10th on 13 points from 9 games — 1. Lig.
- Sarıyer have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Bodrum FK.
- Fatih Karagümrük are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Muğlaspor.
- Last 2 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 December 2024, ended Fatih Karagümrük 3–0 Sarıyer.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fatih Karagümrük at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
Sarıyer
- L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ümraniyespor9 October 2026
- W2-1Boluspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Bandırmaspor11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Keçiörengücü5 September 2026
Fatih Karagümrük
- D1-1Muğlaspor11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Esenler Erokspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Manisa F.K.13 September 2026
- L3-4away to Batman Petrolspor6 September 2026
- D1-1Kayserispor2 September 2026
What these results say
- Sarıyer conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fatih Karagümrük conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sarıyer | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sarıyer
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Fatih Karagümrük
Chance to finish in the top four · 32% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük
- 4 December 2024Fatih Karagümrük 3–0 SarıyerTürkiye Kupası
- 1 December 2021Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 SarıyerTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük
Sarıyer
GoalsAssists
- B. Kör41
Fatih Karagümrük
GoalsAssists
- A. Pešić52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sarıyer carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.51 for Fatih Karagümrük. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Sarıyer and 1.30 for Fatih Karagümrük. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarıyer rate 0.53 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fatih Karagümrük rate 0.67 and 1.33.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sarıyer, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sarıyer a 0.7% chance of the title and Fatih Karagümrük 6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fatih Karagümrük the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sarıyer against 1.30 for Fatih Karagümrük. Sarıyer's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.33 for Fatih Karagümrük.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarıyer at home · Fatih Karagümrük away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Sarıyer 10, Fatih Karagümrük 9.
Fatih Karagümrük score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Sarıyer have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sarıyer
- at Vanspor FK31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Iğdır FK6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 38%
- at Kayserispor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- vs İstanbulspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 50%
Fatih Karagümrük
- vs Pendikspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 57%
- at Bandırmaspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 27%
- vs Boluspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 69%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.