Vancouver Whitecaps
vs
Seattle Sounders
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0 Seattle Sounders
The model makes it 54% Vancouver Whitecaps, 26% draw, 20% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vancouver Whitecaps 1.83, Seattle Sounders 0.93.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Vancouver Whitecaps: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Vancouver Whitecaps are top on 55 points from 30 games; Seattle Sounders are 7th on 42 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Vancouver Whitecaps are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Austin.
- Seattle Sounders have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to CF Montreal.
- Last 6 meetings: Seattle Sounders 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 August 2026, ended Seattle Sounders 0–2 Vancouver Whitecaps.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 54% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps
- W2-1away to Austin18 October 2026
- D0-0away to St. Louis City15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Chicago Fire7 October 2026
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
Seattle Sounders
- D1-1CF Montreal18 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Dallas15 October 2026
- W3-0away to New England Revolution10 October 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
What these results say
- Vancouver Whitecaps failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | +32 | 55 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
- 17 August 2026Seattle Sounders 0–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 19 March 2026Seattle Sounders 2–1 Vancouver WhitecapsCONCACAF Champions League
- 13 March 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3 Seattle SoundersCONCACAF Champions League
- 28 September 2025Seattle Sounders 2–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 9 June 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 3 October 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 0–3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White172
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vancouver Whitecaps carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.5 for Seattle Sounders. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 0.93 for Seattle Sounders. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.81 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Seattle Sounders rate 0.59 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 84.8% chance of the title and Seattle Sounders 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps against 0.93 for Seattle Sounders. Vancouver Whitecaps's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.23 for Seattle Sounders.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vancouver Whitecaps at home · Seattle Sounders away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Vancouver Whitecaps 29, Seattle Sounders 29.
Seattle Sounders score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Vancouver Whitecaps have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Vancouver Whitecaps
- at CF Montreal7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 53%
Seattle Sounders
- vs Los Angeles FC8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.