Houston Dynamo
vs
FC Dallas
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Houston Dynamo 1–0 FC Dallas
The model makes it 38% Houston Dynamo, 30% draw, 32% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.37, FC Dallas 1.18.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Houston Dynamo are 5th on 44 points from 27 games; FC Dallas are 3rd on 47 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Houston Dynamo are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Sporting Kansas City.
- FC Dallas are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Los Angeles FC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended FC Dallas 4–3 Houston Dynamo.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Houston Dynamo at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo
- L0-2Sporting Kansas City27 September 2026
- D2-2FC Cincinnati20 September 2026
- L0-1away to San Jose Earthquakes13 September 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlotte5 September 2026
FC Dallas
- W1-0Los Angeles FC27 September 2026
- D0-0Austin20 September 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC10 September 2026
- W4-3Sporting Kansas City6 September 2026
What these results say
- Houston Dynamo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 44 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
- 22 March 2026FC Dallas 4–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 11 February 2026FC Dallas 1–2 Houston DynamoFriendlies Clubs
- 18 May 2025FC Dallas 0–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Houston Dynamo 1–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 7 February 2025FC Dallas 2–2 Houston DynamoFriendlies Clubs
- 19 May 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo
- Guilherme14 goals6 assists
FC Dallas
- P. Musa18 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Houston Dynamo carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.54 for FC Dallas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Houston Dynamo and 1.18 for FC Dallas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Houston Dynamo rate 0.53 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Dallas rate 0.76 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Dallas, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Houston Dynamo a 0.8% chance of the title and FC Dallas 7.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Houston Dynamo the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Houston Dynamo against 1.18 for FC Dallas. Houston Dynamo's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.42 for FC Dallas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Houston Dynamo at home · FC Dallas away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Houston Dynamo 27, FC Dallas 27.
Houston Dynamo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); FC Dallas have let in 10 there.
FC Dallas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Houston Dynamo have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Houston Dynamo
- vs Minnesota United FC25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 43%
- at Seattle Sounders29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- at Portland Timbers2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 33%
FC Dallas
- vs San Jose Earthquakes25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 44%
- vs Columbus Crew29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 44%
- at Sporting Kansas City31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.