San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Nashville SC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Nashville SC
The model makes it 29% San Jose Earthquakes, 28% draw, 43% Nashville SC — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.18, Nashville SC 1.74.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- San Jose Earthquakes are 4th in Major League Soccer, Western Conference on 45 points from 27 games; Nashville SC are top in Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference on 60 points from 27 games.
- San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Portland Timbers.
- Nashville SC are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Toronto FC.
- Last 4 meetings: all 4 drawn; the most recent, 28 April 2024, ended Nashville SC 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nashville SC at 43% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
- W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
Nashville SC
- W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
- W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026
- D0-0away to New York City FC4 September 2026
What these results say
- San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 45 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55 | 21 | +34 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC
- 28 April 2024Nashville SC 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 24 September 2023San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 12 June 2022Nashville SC 0–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 16 April 2022San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd15 goals2 assists
Nashville SC
- S. Surridge16 goals1 assist
- H. Mukhtar13 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
San Jose Earthquakes carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.8 for Nashville SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.74 for Nashville SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.72 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nashville SC rate 0.80 and 0.90.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes against 1.74 for Nashville SC. San Jose Earthquakes's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/0.9 for Nashville SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
San Jose Earthquakes at home · Nashville SC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: San Jose Earthquakes 27, Nashville SC 27.
San Jose Earthquakes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Nashville SC have let in 2 there.
Nashville SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); San Jose Earthquakes have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
San Jose Earthquakes
- at FC Dallas25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- vs Colorado Rapids29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 43%
- vs Real Salt Lake31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
Nashville SC
- at CF Montreal24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 50%
- vs Philadelphia Union29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 46%
- vs New York Red Bulls1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.