Nashville SC
vs
New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Nashville SC 2–0 New York Red Bulls
The model makes it 67% Nashville SC, 21% draw, 12% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Nashville SC 2.25, New York Red Bulls 0.69.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Nashville SC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Nashville SC are top on 67 points from 30 games; New York Red Bulls are 8th on 36 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Nashville SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to San Jose Earthquakes.
- New York Red Bulls have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Toronto FC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 August 2026, ended New York Red Bulls 0–1 Nashville SC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nashville SC at 67% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
- D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes18 October 2026
- W4-0Sporting Kansas City15 October 2026
- W4-1away to Austin11 October 2026
- W2-0Toronto FC27 September 2026
- W3-0Chicago Fire20 September 2026
New York Red Bulls
- L0-2Toronto FC17 October 2026
- L1-2away to DC United14 October 2026
- W4-1San Diego10 October 2026
- L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
What these results say
- Nashville SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nashville SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | +41 | 67 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
- 19 August 2026New York Red Bulls 0–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2025Nashville SC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 15 June 2024New York Red Bulls 0–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 24 February 2024Nashville SC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 22 October 2023Nashville SC 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Nashville SC and New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC
GoalsAssists
- S. Surridge171
- H. Mukhtar167
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nashville SC carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.37 for New York Red Bulls. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Nashville SC and 0.69 for New York Red Bulls. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nashville SC rate 0.84 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York Red Bulls rate 0.55 and 1.46.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Nashville SC against 0.69 for New York Red Bulls. Nashville SC's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.46 for New York Red Bulls.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nashville SC at home · New York Red Bulls away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Nashville SC 29, New York Red Bulls 29.
Nashville SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); New York Red Bulls have let in 12 there.
New York Red Bulls score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Nashville SC have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Nashville SC
- at FC Cincinnati7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 54%
New York Red Bulls
- vs Atlanta United FC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.