Austin
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
The model makes it 28% Austin, 28% draw, 44% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Austin 1.23, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.83.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Austin are 13th on 31 points from 27 games; Vancouver Whitecaps are top on 50 points from 26 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Austin are unbeaten in their last 5 (1 won), most recently a 3-3 draw at home to San Diego.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to DC United.
- Last 6 meetings: Vancouver Whitecaps 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 Austin.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Austin
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
- D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes6 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
- L1-2Austin13 September 2026
- W3-0Los Angeles Galaxy10 September 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City6 September 2026
What these results say
- Austin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Vancouver Whitecaps had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 26 | +33 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 13 September 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2025Austin 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 5–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024Austin 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 0–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Austin and Vancouver Whitecaps
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Vancouver Whitecaps
- B. White17 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Austin carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.73 for Vancouver Whitecaps. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Austin and 1.83 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austin rate 0.60 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.88 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Austin a 0% chance of the title and Vancouver Whitecaps 74.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Austin against 1.83 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Austin's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.12 for Vancouver Whitecaps.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Austin at home · Vancouver Whitecaps away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Austin 27, Vancouver Whitecaps 26.
Austin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Vancouver Whitecaps have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Austin
- at Sporting Kansas City25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 37%
- vs Real Salt Lake29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 41%
- at Los Angeles Galaxy31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 32%
Vancouver Whitecaps
- at Colorado Rapids25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 43%
- vs San Diego29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.