Colorado Rapids
vs
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Colorado Rapids 0–1 Chicago Fire
The model makes it 35% Colorado Rapids, 28% draw, 37% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Colorado Rapids 1.33, Chicago Fire 1.40.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Colorado Rapids and Chicago Fire are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Colorado Rapids are 9th in Major League Soccer, Western Conference on 39 points from 30 games; Chicago Fire are 4th in Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference on 48 points from 30 games.
- Colorado Rapids have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Portland Timbers.
- Chicago Fire have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to New England Revolution.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 April 2019, ended Chicago Fire 4–1 Colorado Rapids.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids
- D0-0away to Portland Timbers18 October 2026
- D2-2Minnesota United FC15 October 2026
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Los Angeles Galaxy27 September 2026
- D3-3Seattle Sounders20 September 2026
Chicago Fire
- L0-1away to New England Revolution17 October 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union15 October 2026
- W2-1New York City FC10 October 2026
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
What these results say
- Colorado Rapids did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 39 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 44 | +8 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Colorado Rapids
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today
Chicago Fire
Chance to finish in the top four · 52% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire
- 20 April 2019Chicago Fire 4–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 14 June 2018Colorado Rapids 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2017Chicago Fire 3–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 19 June 2016Colorado Rapids 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 23 August 2015Chicago Fire 0–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 5 June 2014Colorado Rapids 0–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Colorado Rapids and Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Chicago Fire
GoalsAssists
- H. Cuypers130
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Colorado Rapids carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.56 for Chicago Fire. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Colorado Rapids and 1.40 for Chicago Fire. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Colorado Rapids rate 0.54 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chicago Fire rate 0.75 and 1.34.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Colorado Rapids against 1.40 for Chicago Fire. Colorado Rapids's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.34 for Chicago Fire.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Colorado Rapids at home · Chicago Fire away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Colorado Rapids 29, Chicago Fire 29.
Colorado Rapids score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Chicago Fire have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Colorado Rapids
- at FC Dallas8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 25%
Chicago Fire
- vs Columbus Crew7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.