Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
San Diego
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 San Diego
The model makes it 38% Los Angeles Galaxy, 27% draw, 35% San Diego — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Los Angeles Galaxy 1.68, San Diego 1.57.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Los Angeles Galaxy are 9th on 36 points from 28 games; San Diego are 12th on 32 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Los Angeles Galaxy are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Colorado Rapids.
- San Diego have not won in their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Austin.
- Last 3 meetings: San Diego 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended San Diego 3–1 Los Angeles Galaxy.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego
Los Angeles Galaxy
- W3-2Colorado Rapids27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Minnesota United FC20 September 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps10 September 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution6 September 2026
San Diego
- D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
- L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy had three goals or more.
- San Diego did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego
- 30 August 2026San Diego 3–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 24 May 2025San Diego 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 24 February 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles Galaxy and San Diego
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen12 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Los Angeles Galaxy carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.49 for San Diego. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.57 for San Diego. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.62 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Diego rate 0.72 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy against 1.57 for San Diego. Los Angeles Galaxy's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.48 for San Diego.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Los Angeles Galaxy at home · San Diego away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Los Angeles Galaxy 28, San Diego 27.
Los Angeles Galaxy score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); San Diego have let in 10 there.
San Diego score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Los Angeles Galaxy have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Los Angeles Galaxy
- at Los Angeles FC26 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 24%
- vs Austin31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 40%
- at Real Salt Lake8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 32%
San Diego
- vs Seattle Sounders25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 42%
- at Vancouver Whitecaps29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 23%
- at St. Louis City31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.