FC Cincinnati
vs
Columbus Crew
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: FC Cincinnati 2–1 Columbus Crew
The model makes it 41% FC Cincinnati, 25% draw, 34% Columbus Crew — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 2.13, Columbus Crew 1.81.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- FC Cincinnati are 10th on 33 points from 26 games; Columbus Crew are 12th on 29 points from 27 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- FC Cincinnati have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to CF Montreal.
- Columbus Crew have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Inter Miami.
- Last 6 meetings: Columbus Crew 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Columbus Crew 2–1 FC Cincinnati.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Cincinnati at 41% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
FC Cincinnati
- L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
- D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Philadelphia Union9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Nashville SC30 August 2026
Columbus Crew
- W2-1Inter Miami27 September 2026
- W2-0away to CF Montreal19 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
- L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Cincinnati did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati had three goals or more.
- Columbus Crew scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 64 | -9 | 33 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
- 25 July 2026Columbus Crew 2–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 8 November 2025FC Cincinnati 2–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 2 November 2025Columbus Crew 4–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 27 October 2025FC Cincinnati 1–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 12 July 2025FC Cincinnati 2–4 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 17 May 2025Columbus Crew 1–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew
FC Cincinnati
- K. Denkey14 goals3 assists
- Evander12 goals8 assists
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Cincinnati carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.47 for Columbus Crew. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.81 for Columbus Crew. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Cincinnati rate 0.84 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Columbus Crew rate 0.65 and 1.39.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Cincinnati the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for FC Cincinnati against 1.81 for Columbus Crew. FC Cincinnati's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.39 for Columbus Crew.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Cincinnati at home · Columbus Crew away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: FC Cincinnati 26, Columbus Crew 27.
FC Cincinnati score most often in the 76–90 minute window (20 goals); Columbus Crew have let in 11 there.
Columbus Crew score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); FC Cincinnati have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Cincinnati
- vs DC United21 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- at DC United24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 34%
- at Inter Miami28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 21%
Columbus Crew
- vs Toronto FC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 42%
- at FC Dallas29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 29%
- vs DC United31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.