Atlanta United FC
vs
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Atlanta United FC 2–1 Toronto FC
The model makes it 38% Atlanta United FC, 27% draw, 35% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atlanta United FC 1.52, Toronto FC 1.41.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Atlanta United FC and Toronto FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Atlanta United FC are 14th on 30 points from 30 games; Toronto FC are 10th on 36 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Atlanta United FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Inter Miami.
- Toronto FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to New York Red Bulls.
- Last 6 meetings: Atlanta United FC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlanta United FC at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
- L1-3Inter Miami17 October 2026
- W3-0away to CF Montreal14 October 2026
- L1-3FC Cincinnati10 October 2026
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
Toronto FC
- W2-0away to New York Red Bulls17 October 2026
- D3-3Orlando City SC14 October 2026
- W2-1CF Montreal10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
What these results say
- Atlanta United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atlanta United FC had three goals or more.
- Toronto FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 30 |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC
- 25 April 2026Toronto FC 1–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2025Atlanta United FC 0–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 12 July 2025Toronto FC 1–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2024Atlanta United FC 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2024Toronto FC 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 April 2023Toronto FC 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlanta United FC carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.47 for Toronto FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Atlanta United FC and 1.41 for Toronto FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlanta United FC rate 0.57 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toronto FC rate 0.68 and 1.45.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlanta United FC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Atlanta United FC against 1.41 for Toronto FC. Atlanta United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.45 for Toronto FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atlanta United FC at home · Toronto FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Atlanta United FC 29, Toronto FC 29.
Atlanta United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Toronto FC have let in 7 there.
Toronto FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Atlanta United FC have let in 14 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Atlanta United FC
- at New York Red Bulls7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 32%
Toronto FC
- at Philadelphia Union7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.