San Jose Earthquakes
vs
Real Salt Lake
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt Lake
The model makes it 48% San Jose Earthquakes, 26% draw, 26% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: San Jose Earthquakes 1.82, Real Salt Lake 1.21.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- San Jose Earthquakes are 4th on 47 points from 29 games; Real Salt Lake are 11th on 33 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Real Salt Lake.
- Real Salt Lake have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to San Jose Earthquakes.
- Last 6 meetings: San Jose Earthquakes 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 October 2026, ended Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Jose Earthquakes at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes
- D1-1away to Real Salt Lake15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Colorado Rapids11 October 2026
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
Real Salt Lake
- D1-1San Jose Earthquakes15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Philadelphia Union10 October 2026
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
What these results say
- San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 41 | +10 | 47 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake
- 15 October 2026Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 27 July 2025Real Salt Lake 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025San Jose Earthquakes 4–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 25 August 2024Real Salt Lake 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 17 September 2023San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd152
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Jose Earthquakes carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.39 for Real Salt Lake. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.21 for Real Salt Lake. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Jose Earthquakes rate 0.68 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Salt Lake rate 0.58 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Jose Earthquakes a 0.8% chance of the title and Real Salt Lake 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Jose Earthquakes the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes against 1.21 for Real Salt Lake. San Jose Earthquakes's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.46 for Real Salt Lake.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
San Jose Earthquakes at home · Real Salt Lake away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: San Jose Earthquakes 29, Real Salt Lake 29.
San Jose Earthquakes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Real Salt Lake have let in 6 there.
Real Salt Lake score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); San Jose Earthquakes have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
San Jose Earthquakes
- at Minnesota United FC8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 35%
Real Salt Lake
- vs Los Angeles Galaxy8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.